Tyrese Maxey's steals prop shows a modest edge toward overs with a 51.0% hit rate across 49 games, averaging 1.14 steals against a typical 0.83 line. The +0.31 differential suggests consistent value, though negative ROI indicates market efficiency. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Maxey's steal production reflects his aggressive perimeter defense and Philadelphia's switching scheme that creates deflection opportunities. The 1.14 average against 0.83 lines indicates books consistently undervalue his defensive activity, likely focusing more on his offensive explosion this season. The balanced 25-24 over-under record with slight over bias suggests legitimate skill rather than variance. Maxey's steal rate benefits from playing alongside Joel Embiid, whose rim protection allows more aggressive ball pressure on the perimeter. The negative ROI despite the edge indicates tight market pricing, but the consistent differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his improved defensive engagement. His steal production correlates with pace and opponent turnovers, making matchups against careless ball-handlers particularly valuable. The current three-game over streak aligns with his season-long trend of exceeding modest expectations. However, the narrow margins require selective betting on optimal spots rather than blind backing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent +0.31 differential above market lines provides legitimate value despite tight ROI margins. Target games against turnover-prone opponents or up-tempo matchups where Maxey's aggressive defensive style creates more steal opportunities. Main risk is the razor-thin margins requiring perfect spot selection to overcome juice.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Tyrese Maxey props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Steals prop record all games?
Maxey has hit the steals over in 25 of 49 games (51.0%) while going under 24 times. His 1.14 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.83 line, creating a consistent +0.31 differential that suggests market undervaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Steals all games?
Lean over on Maxey's steals props, but be selective. The +0.31 differential provides edge, but negative ROI means you need optimal spots. Target games against turnover-prone teams or faster-paced matchups where his aggressive defense thrives.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Steals all games?
Maxey averages 1.14 steals per game across 49 contests, well above the typical 0.83 market line. This +0.31 differential represents significant value, though the 51.0% over rate shows books are slowly adjusting to his defensive improvement.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey steals overs against teams with high turnover rates or in up-tempo games where his aggressive perimeter pressure creates more opportunities. Avoid back-to-backs where defensive intensity typically drops and steal chances decrease accordingly.