Tyrese Maxey's points props show a clear under bias with just 47.6% overs across 63 games, averaging 1.1 points below his typical 26.58 line. The -9.1% ROI on overs suggests consistent market overvaluation. This creates a sustainable edge backing unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of market inefficiency around Tyrese Maxey's scoring output. With the guard hitting overs in fewer than half his games (30 of 63), oddsmakers appear to consistently overestimate his scoring ceiling. The 1.1-point differential between his 25.46 average and typical 26.58 line represents meaningful value, especially considering the -9.1% ROI hemorrhaging on the over side. This isn't a small sample fluke—63 games provides substantial data showing Maxey's scoring is more volatile than markets price. The current two-game under streak aligns with his longer-term pattern, having posted an eight-game under run earlier this season. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the break-even nature of under bets (0.0% ROI) versus the consistent losses on overs. Philadelphia's offensive system, which can distribute scoring among Joel Embiid, Paul George, and other weapons, often caps Maxey's ceiling in ways that aren't fully reflected in his lines. The guard's efficiency fluctuations and Philadelphia's pace variations create natural scoring variance that markets struggle to properly calibrate, consistently inflating his projected output.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.6% over rate and -9.1% ROI on overs indicates systematic market overvaluation of Maxey's scoring. Target unders when lines sit at 26+ points, particularly in games where Philadelphia projects to control pace or when Embiid and George are both active to share offensive load. Main risk is a hot shooting stretch inflating his average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 5.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 27.5 | 27.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 29.5 | 31.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 30.5 | 42.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 29.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 28.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 22.5 | 26.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 7.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 16.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 26.5 | 29.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 26.5 | 24.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 28.5 | 27.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 27.5 | 6.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 27.5 | 30.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Points prop record all games?
Tyrese Maxey has gone over his points prop in 30 of 63 games (47.6%) this season, with 33 unders. This below-50% rate indicates consistent market overvaluation of his scoring output.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Points all games?
Bet under on Tyrese Maxey's points props. The 47.6% over rate and -9.1% ROI on overs shows markets consistently overestimate his scoring, while unders have broken even.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Points all games?
Tyrese Maxey averages 25.46 points per game compared to his typical line of 26.58, creating a 1.1-point gap that favors under bets across his 63-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey under bets when lines are 26+ points and Philadelphia's core players are healthy, as balanced offensive distribution limits his ceiling in controlled-pace games.