Tyrese Maxey's blocks prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity with just 25.0% overs hitting across 24 games. His 0.33 average sits significantly below the standard 0.5 line, generating exceptional under value. This represents a high-conviction systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
The mathematics behind Maxey's blocks prop are stark and revealing. At 6-18-0 over/under with a -0.2 differential from the line, we're witnessing a fundamental mismatch between oddsmaker expectations and reality. Guards averaging 0.33 blocks simply don't clear 0.5 with regularity, yet books continue setting this line at home. The 43.2% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profitability over 24 games, while the catastrophic -52.3% over ROI confirms this isn't random variance. Maxey's defensive positioning as a scoring-focused guard limits his shot-blocking opportunities. His 6'2" frame and offensive responsibilities mean he's rarely in position for blocks, particularly at home where Philadelphia often controls pace. The longest under streak of 6 games suggests books are slow to adjust, creating recurring value. Current 1-game under streak indicates fresh opportunity rather than concerning regression. The absence of split data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests consistent performance across various game states and matchups.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 75% under rate over 24 home games represents a systematic edge that books haven't corrected. Maxey's role, physical limitations, and consistent underperformance create ideal betting conditions. Primary risk involves potential line movement to 0.5+, but current pricing offers exceptional value for disciplined bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Blocks prop record home games?
Maxey's blocks prop record in home games is 6-18-0 over/under, hitting just 25.0% overs. This translates to 18 unders in 24 games, demonstrating consistent underperformance against the standard 0.5 blocks line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Blocks home games?
Bet UNDER on Maxey's blocks props at home. The 75% under rate over 24 games and 43.2% ROI provide compelling evidence. His 0.33 average sits well below typical 0.5 lines, creating systematic value.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Blocks home games?
Maxey averages 0.33 blocks in home games, sitting 0.17 blocks below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.2 differential creates consistent value for under bettors, as he rarely reaches the threshold oddsmakers set.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when lines remain at 0.5 blocks despite his poor home record. Target games where Philadelphia is favored and controlling pace, as Maxey focuses on offense rather than defensive positioning.