Tyrese Haliburton's home three-point props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.7% of overs across 36 games with a -0.2 average differential below the line. The under trend shows an 11.4% ROI while overs lose at -20.4%, making this a high-conviction fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's home three-point struggles stem from the Pacers' pace-heavy offensive system that prioritizes quick shots and ball movement over extended possessions that typically generate more three-point attempts. At home, Indiana averages one of the league's fastest tempos, but this creates shorter possessions where Haliburton operates more as a facilitator than a volume shooter. The 2.72 home average versus a 2.92 typical line represents a consistent market inefficiency, as books appear to overvalue his shooting in the comfort of home court. The current three-game over streak is actually concerning for over bettors, as it represents variance against a strong underlying trend rather than a shift in approach. Haliburton's role as primary distributor becomes more pronounced at home where the Pacers push pace aggressively, leaving him fewer catch-and-shoot opportunities compared to road games where the offense may slow down and require more individual creation. The -20.4% ROI on overs across 36 games indicates this isn't a small sample quirk but a systematic undervaluation of how Indiana's home style affects his three-point volume. Without favorable matchup data suggesting pace-down games or injury situations requiring more individual scoring, the under remains the mathematically superior play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.4% under ROI and consistent -0.2 line differential create a sustainable edge, though the recent three-game over streak demands caution. Target this prop when the line sits at 3.0 or higher, as Haliburton's 2.72 home average provides maximum value. The main risk is variance catching up short-term, but the underlying pace-driven factors supporting this trend remain intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Haliburton's home three-point props have gone under 21 times and over 15 times across 36 games, producing a 58.3% under rate with an 11.4% ROI for under bettors this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Haliburton's home three-point props. The 11.4% under ROI and -0.2 average differential provide a sustainable edge, especially when the line reaches 3.0 or higher.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Haliburton averages 2.72 three-pointers made in home games, which runs 0.2 below his typical 2.92 line. This consistent gap creates value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton's three-point unders in home games when the line is set at 3.0 or higher, maximizing the value against his 2.72 average while avoiding lower lines with less margin.