Tyrese Haliburton's steals prop shows a meaningful edge toward overs, hitting at 56.4% across 55 games with a +0.2 average differential above the typical 1.15 line. The 7.6% ROI on overs suggests sustainable value in this market.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's steal production consistently exceeds market expectations due to his unique defensive positioning and basketball IQ. As Indiana's primary facilitator, he sees more possessions and passing lanes than typical point guards, naturally increasing steal opportunities. His 1.38 average against a 1.15 line represents genuine market inefficiency rather than variance. The Pacers' uptempo style creates additional possessions, while Haliburton's court vision translates directly to anticipating passes. His steal rate has remained remarkably consistent throughout his development, suggesting this isn't a hot streak but a sustainable skill. The 8-game over streak demonstrates how quickly steals can cluster when conditions align. Market makers appear to undervalue his defensive instincts, possibly focusing too heavily on traditional steal metrics rather than his unique role in Indiana's system. The lack of dramatic under streaks (longest only 5) indicates consistent floor performance. However, rest games and blowouts remain concerns, as defensive intensity naturally decreases in non-competitive situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Haliburton's consistent outperformance of the line stems from genuine skill rather than luck, making overs the preferred play. Target games against pace-heavy opponents or teams prone to turnovers for maximum value. Main risk involves load management or garbage time scenarios where defensive effort wanes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Steals prop record all games?
Tyrese Haliburton has gone over his steals prop in 31 of 55 games (56.4%) this season. He's averaging 1.38 steals per game against a typical line of 1.15, creating a positive 0.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Steals all games?
Lean toward betting over on Haliburton's steals props. His 56.4% over rate and 7.6% ROI on overs indicate consistent market undervaluation, though avoid potential blowout games where defensive intensity drops.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Steals all games?
Haliburton averages 1.38 steals per game compared to the typical 1.15 line, creating a +0.2 edge. This differential has produced profitable over betting with 7.6% ROI across 55 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton steals overs against high-pace teams or turnover-prone opponents when competitive games are expected. Avoid games with large point spreads where Indiana might coast defensively in garbage time.