Tyrese Haliburton has been a consistent under performer at home, hitting just 40.5% of his points overs across 37 games with a brutal -1.1 average differential. The under has delivered a solid 13.5% ROI while overs have burned bettors for -22.6%. This creates a clear lean toward under bets in Indianapolis.
Expert Analysis
Haliburton's home struggles stem from the Pacers' offensive dynamics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where his facilitating role often takes precedence over scoring. The 20.19 average against a 21.34 line reveals consistent market overvaluation, likely driven by his rising profile and casual betting action on the popular young star. This 1.1-point gap might seem small, but it's statistically significant over 37 games and translates directly to profitable under betting. The trend shows remarkable persistence with only brief over streaks, suggesting structural factors rather than random variance. Indiana's home pace and opponent adjustments appear to consistently limit Haliburton's scoring opportunities, as teams focus on containing his playmaking while allowing role players to beat them. The 59.5% under rate isn't just a hot streak—it reflects a fundamental mismatch between public perception and on-court reality. With books slow to adjust lines downward, this inefficiency has created sustained value for disciplined under bettors who recognize that Haliburton's impact often comes through assists rather than points when playing in familiar surroundings.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 13.5% ROI on unders combined with the persistent 1.1-point differential creates legitimate value, though the sample size demands caution. Target unders when the line sits at 21+ points, as this amplifies the edge. The main risk is regression to league-average home performance, but Haliburton's pass-first mentality and Indiana's offensive structure suggest this trend has staying power through the season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 18.5 | 22.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 19.5 | 19.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 17.5 | 35.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 19.5 | 8.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 18.5 | 27.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 18.5 | 23.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 21.5 | 9.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Points prop record home games?
Haliburton is 15-22 on points overs in home games, hitting just 40.5% with a -22.6% ROI for over bettors. The under has been profitable at 13.5% ROI across 37 games, making it the clear value side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Points home games?
Bet under on Haliburton's points at home. The data strongly supports this with a 59.5% under rate and 1.1-point average differential favoring unders. Target lines at 21+ for maximum edge and avoid overs entirely.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Points home games?
Haliburton averages 20.19 points in home games compared to typical lines around 21.34, creating a consistent 1.1-point gap. This differential has proven profitable for under bettors throughout the season with remarkable consistency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton under bets when lines are 21+ points and Indiana faces teams that defend the perimeter well. Avoid after poor shooting performances when books might drop lines, reducing the structural edge.