Tyrese Haliburton has hit the over on his points prop just 43.8% of the time in back-to-back games, going 7-9-0 across 16 contests. Despite averaging 23.62 points versus a 22.0 line, the under has delivered a +7.4% ROI while overs have lost -16.5%. This creates a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Tyrese Haliburton's back-to-back performance reveals a fascinating disconnect between production and betting value. While the Pacers' floor general averages 23.62 points in these spots—1.6 points above the typical 22.0 line—the distribution heavily favors under bettors. This suggests oddsmakers are pricing in his raw scoring average without properly accounting for the variance and fatigue factors that plague many players on consecutive nights. Haliburton's role as Indiana's primary facilitator becomes crucial here, as his scoring often takes a backseat to playmaking when legs get heavy. The 4-game under streak he recorded during this sample indicates extended periods where his shot selection becomes more selective and his focus shifts toward getting teammates involved. The concerning -16.5% ROI on overs despite a positive scoring differential points to a systematic overvaluation by the market. Back-to-back games typically see reduced minutes for key players, and Haliburton's unselfish nature means he's more likely to defer scoring opportunities when fatigue sets in, making the under the mathematically superior play despite his consistent production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 7.4% ROI on unders combined with a 56.3% hit rate creates solid value despite Haliburton averaging above the line. His facilitator-first mentality becomes more pronounced on tired legs, leading to fewer shot attempts in back-to-back spots. Target this when the line sits at 22.0 or higher, especially if Indiana played a high-pace game the night before.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 29.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 19.5 | 19.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 19.5 | 30.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 21.5 | 9.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 25.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 28.5 | 27.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 27.5 | 26.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 23.5 | 33.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 21.5 | 29.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 16.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-04 | OPP | 20.5 | 43.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Haliburton's Points prop record back-to-back games?
Haliburton has gone 7-9-0 on his points prop in back-to-back games, hitting the over just 43.8% of the time across 16 contests. The under has been significantly more profitable, generating a 7.4% ROI compared to -16.5% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Haliburton Points back-to-back games?
Bet the under on Haliburton's points in back-to-back games. Despite averaging above the line, unders have hit 56.3% of the time with positive ROI. His facilitator mentality becomes more pronounced when fatigued, leading to fewer scoring attempts.
What's Tyrese Haliburton's average Points back-to-back games?
Haliburton averages 23.62 points in back-to-back games, which is 1.6 points above the typical 22.0 line. However, this positive differential has been misleading for over bettors, who have lost money despite the favorable average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Haliburton points unders when the line is set at 22.0 or higher in back-to-back situations. The best spots occur after high-pace games where fatigue will be most pronounced, making his facilitator instincts override scoring aggression.