Tyler Herro's three-point props show clear under value with just 44.7% overs across 47 games, generating +5.6% ROI on unders versus -14.7% on overs. His 3.15 average sits 0.1 below the typical 3.22 line. Lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Herro's three-point shooting props reveal a systematic underperformance against market expectations, hitting the over in just 21 of 47 games this season. The 3.15 average versus 3.22 line differential appears modest, but the consistency of this gap creates exploitable value. Herro's shooting variance follows predictable patterns tied to his role fluctuations within Miami's system. When the Heat prioritize ball movement and Herro operates more as a facilitator, his three-point attempts naturally decrease. The market consistently overvalues his ceiling games while underweighting his floor performances. His recent under streak of one game sits within normal variance, but the broader 47-game sample shows remarkable consistency in falling short of inflated lines. The -14.7% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't adjusted to Herro's actual usage patterns, particularly in games where Miami emphasizes interior scoring or when Herro shoulders increased playmaking responsibilities. This creates a sustainable edge on the under side, especially when lines hover around his season average or higher.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.3% under rate combined with positive ROI creates clear value, though the edge isn't overwhelming. Target games where Herro's line sits at 3.0 or higher, particularly when Miami faces teams that limit transition opportunities or when Herro's playmaking role expands. Main risk involves Herro's ceiling games where he can explode for 6+ threes, but the frequency doesn't justify the consistent over pricing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 10.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Herro's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Tyler Herro has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 26 of 47 games (55.3%) this season, posting a 21-26-0 over/under record. His under bets have generated a positive 5.6% ROI while overs show a negative 14.7% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Herro 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Tyler Herro's three-pointers made props. The 55.3% under rate and positive ROI on unders create clear value, especially when his line sits at 3.0 or higher where the market consistently overestimates his output.
What's Tyler Herro's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Tyler Herro averages 3.15 three-pointers made per game this season, which sits 0.1 below his typical line of 3.22. This small but consistent gap has created profitable under opportunities throughout the 47-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Herro three-point unders when his line reaches 3.0 or higher, particularly against defensive teams that limit transition opportunities or when Miami emphasizes interior scoring. Avoid betting when he's coming off multiple under performances due to potential variance correction.