Tyler Herro's assists props have been profitable unders territory over his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs while averaging 5.3 assists against a 5.8 line. The -0.5 differential combined with +14.6% ROI on unders creates a clear lean under edge.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Herro's assist production has consistently fallen short of market expectations, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. The 5.3 average against a 5.8 line represents a meaningful 8.6% gap that suggests oddsmakers are overvaluing his playmaking role. This isn't simply regression luck—Herro's assist totals reflect Miami's offensive structure where he functions more as a scoring guard than primary facilitator. The Heat's pace and ball movement patterns limit his assist ceiling, particularly when Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo handle more creation duties. The 4-6 over/under record masks the severity of his misses, as several games saw him fall well below the number rather than narrowly missing. His longest under streak of three games indicates the market has been slow to adjust to his actual usage patterns. The +14.6% ROI on unders over this sample isn't noise—it reflects a fundamental mispricing of Herro's role within Miami's system. While he's capable of explosive scoring nights, his assist production remains constrained by scheme and personnel, making the under the mathematically superior play until books properly recalibrate their approach to his playmaking props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.5 differential and 40% over rate create value on the under, though the sample size demands caution. Herro's role as Miami's secondary scorer limits his assist ceiling, and the market appears slow to adjust. Target unders when the line sits at 5.5 or higher, but avoid when Miami faces pace-up spots or missing key ball-handlers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Herro's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Herro has gone over his assists prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), going under 6 times. His 4-6-0 record shows a clear trend toward the under with no pushes in this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Herro Assists last 10 games?
Bet under on Tyler Herro assists props. His 5.3 average sits 0.5 assists below the typical 5.8 line, creating consistent value. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI support this approach with medium confidence.
What's Tyler Herro's average Assists last 10 games?
Tyler Herro is averaging 5.3 assists over his last 10 games, which runs 0.5 assists below the standard 5.8 line. This -8.6% gap between performance and market expectation creates measurable under value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Herro assists unders when the line is 5.5 or higher, especially in standard pace games where Miami's offense flows through Butler and Adebayo. Avoid when key Heat playmakers are injured or in pace-up matchups.