Trey Murphy III has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 30% over his three-point props across 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI. Currently riding five straight unders while averaging 2.6 makes against a 3.3 line, this represents a clear systematic fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Trey Murphy III's three-point regression. Averaging 2.6 makes against a 3.3 line creates a meaningful 0.7-shot gap that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his recent form or underlying factors are suppressing his volume. The 30% over rate across 10 games indicates this isn't random variance—something structural has changed. The five-game under streak, coupled with his longest over streak being just two games, suggests consistent factors limiting his three-point opportunities. This could stem from role changes, defensive attention, or shot selection adjustments that books haven't fully priced in. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this has been a systematic money-maker for under bettors. Without splits data to identify specific conditions driving this trend, the safest approach is recognizing that Murphy's current three-point output consistently falls short of market expectations. The 33.6% ROI on unders provides strong evidence this edge has been persistent and profitable. Until we see clear signs of regression to his historical mean or role expansion, the data strongly favors continued under performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.7-shot differential between Murphy's average (2.6) and typical lines (3.3) represents genuine value, supported by five consecutive unders and strong historical ROI. Target this trend when lines remain elevated above 3.0, as the data suggests Murphy's current role limits his three-point volume. Main risk is positive regression if his usage increases or shot selection improves.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Murphy has gone 3-7-0 over/under on his three-point props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's currently on a five-game under streak, with his longest over streak being only two games during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Murphy's three-point props. The data shows a clear edge with 33.6% ROI on unders and only 30% overs hit rate. His 2.6 average against typical 3.3 lines creates consistent value on the under.
What's Trey Murphy III's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Murphy is averaging 2.6 three-pointers made over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.3 line, creating a significant 0.7-shot deficit. This gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy three-point unders when lines are set at 3.0 or higher, as his recent 2.6 average creates maximum value. Avoid when lines drop below 2.5, as that eliminates the mathematical edge this trend provides.