Trey Murphy III's three-pointers made prop shows clear under value at home, hitting just 45.5% overs with a -0.22 per-game differential versus the line. The consistent underperformance spans 11 games with negative ROI on overs. Lean under on Murphy's home three-point props.
Expert Analysis
Trey Murphy III's home three-point production reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers, with the New Orleans forward averaging 2.64 makes against a 2.86 line over 11 tracked games. This -0.22 differential might seem marginal, but it represents an 8% gap that compounds over time. The 45.5% over rate combined with -13.2% ROI on overs tells a clear story of inflated expectations. Murphy's current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, suggesting this isn't random variance but a persistent edge. Home court factors often boost offensive numbers, yet Murphy bucks this trend, indicating potential comfort issues or defensive adjustments teams make specifically at the Smoothie King Center. The lack of recent hot streaks (longest over streak just two games) reinforces that Murphy's home three-point volume remains consistently below market expectations. With sportsbooks slow to adjust lines downward, this creates ongoing value for under bettors willing to fade the public's tendency to overestimate three-point production in favorable home environments.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Murphy's systematic underperformance at home creates legitimate value despite the modest sample size. The -0.22 per-game differential combined with poor over ROI indicates oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for his home court struggles. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, but avoid games where Murphy faces poor perimeter defenses that could artificially inflate his attempts and makes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Murphy's three-pointers made prop record at home stands at 5-6-0 over/under across 11 games, hitting just 45.5% overs. He averages 2.64 makes against a typical 2.86 line, showing consistent underperformance at the Smoothie King Center.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Murphy's three-pointers made at home. The data shows clear value with 45.5% overs, -13.2% ROI on overs, and a -0.22 per-game differential. His home court struggles create systematic opportunities for under bettors.
What's Trey Murphy III's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Murphy averages 2.64 three-pointers made in home games, falling 0.22 short of the typical 2.86 line. This 8% gap represents meaningful value for under bettors, as the market consistently overestimates his home three-point production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy three-point unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher at home games. Avoid betting after strong shooting performances or against poor perimeter defenses. His consistent home underperformance creates the most value on standard props.