Trey Murphy III's steals props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over the last 10 games with a -23.6% ROI on overs. Currently riding a three-game under streak, Murphy is averaging 0.9 steals against a 1.1 line. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Trey Murphy III struggling to reach his steals expectations. Averaging 0.9 steals per game against a consistent 1.1 line creates a meaningful -0.2 differential that has translated into profitable under betting opportunities. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a systematic underperformance relative to market pricing. Murphy's current three-game under streak suggests defensive positioning or effort levels that aren't generating the steal opportunities books expect from a lengthy wing defender. The 4-6 over-under record with such a stark ROI split indicates the market has been slow to adjust to Murphy's reduced steal production. Without pace or matchup context, this appears to be more about Murphy's individual defensive approach than external factors. The consistency of underperformance across a 10-game sample spanning nearly a year suggests this trend has staying power. Books may be pricing Murphy based on his athletic profile and defensive potential rather than his actual steal production patterns. The lack of any significant over streaks (longest just 4 games) reinforces that when Murphy does hit overs, it's typically short-lived rather than indicating a shift in his defensive activity level.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Murphy's consistent 0.2 steal deficit per game creates a clear edge. The three-game under streak and 60% under rate over 10 games suggest the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced steal production. Primary risk is a defensive-minded game script or increased minutes that could spike his opportunities unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Trey Murphy III has gone 4-6-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. Under bettors have enjoyed a profitable 14.6% ROI during this stretch while over bettors lost 23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Steals last 10 games?
Bet under on Trey Murphy III steals props. He's averaging 0.9 steals against a 1.1 line with a three-game under streak active. The 14.6% ROI on unders shows clear market inefficiency favoring the under.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Steals last 10 games?
Trey Murphy III is averaging 0.9 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.1 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This consistent underperformance has made under bets profitable at 14.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy steals unders when he's priced at 1.1 or higher, especially during his current form. Avoid betting after defensive-heavy games or when facing high-pace opponents that could artificially inflate steal opportunities through increased possessions.