Trey Murphy III's rebounding props present a compelling over opportunity with a 68.4% hit rate (13-6 record) and +30.6% ROI across 19 games. Murphy averages 5.89 rebounds against a 5.24 line, creating a consistent 0.7-board edge that books haven't adequately adjusted for.
Expert Analysis
Murphy's rebounding dominance stems from his unique role as a 6'9" wing who crashes the glass aggressively while maintaining perimeter responsibilities. His 5.89 average against a 5.24 line represents a significant market inefficiency, suggesting oddsmakers are undervaluing his rebounding impact. The +0.7 differential has persisted across nearly 20 games, indicating this isn't random variance but a structural advantage. Murphy's length and positioning allow him to secure boards that typical wings can't reach, while his defensive rebounding rate benefits from New Orleans' pace and shot selection. The 68.4% over rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only six under performances in 19 attempts. However, the current three-game under streak warrants attention, as it represents regression toward his established baseline rather than a fundamental shift. His rebounding production correlates strongly with minutes and defensive assignments, making matchup analysis crucial. The Pelicans' injury-plagued season has increased Murphy's usage and court time, directly benefiting his rebounding opportunities. Books appear slow to adjust, maintaining lines that consistently undervalue his glass-cleaning ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Murphy's 68.4% over rate and +0.7 average differential create a sustainable edge that books haven't corrected. The three-game under streak actually presents value, as regression favors his established 5.89 average. Target games where Murphy plays 30+ minutes against teams that generate higher rebound totals, maximizing his opportunity volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Rebounds prop record all games?
Murphy's rebounding props show a 13-6-0 over/under record (68.4% overs) across 19 games from December 2023 to March 2025. This translates to a +30.6% ROI on over bets, demonstrating consistent profitability over a substantial sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Rebounds all games?
Lean over on Murphy's rebounding props. His 68.4% over rate and +0.7 average differential above the line create a sustainable edge. The current three-game under streak actually presents regression value toward his 5.89 average.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Rebounds all games?
Murphy averages 5.89 rebounds per game compared to his typical 5.24 line, creating a +0.7 differential. This 0.65-board edge has persisted across 19 games, indicating books consistently undervalue his rebounding production by nearly a full rebound.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where Murphy plays 30+ minutes against pace-up opponents or teams allowing higher rebound totals. His rebounding correlates with court time and defensive assignments, making matchup analysis crucial for maximizing the edge.