Trey Murphy III's points props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 35.7% overs across 14 games with a devastating -31.8% ROI. Currently riding a four-game under streak, Murphy III averages 17.57 points against a 17.5 line, making unders the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Trey Murphy III's struggles on minimal rest. His 5-9-0 over/under record on one day rest reflects a consistent pattern of underperformance that bettors can exploit. The -31.8% ROI on overs represents significant value destruction, while unders have generated a healthy +22.7% return. Murphy III's 17.57 scoring average barely exceeds the typical 17.5 line, creating razor-thin margins that favor the under given his inconsistency. The current four-game under streak isn't just variance—it's part of a broader trend where Murphy III fails to reach his ceiling when playing on back-to-back nights or short rest. As a role player who relies heavily on rhythm shooting, the compressed recovery time appears to impact his shot selection and energy levels. The Pelicans' rotation adjustments on short rest often reduce his minutes or touches, limiting his scoring opportunities. Without significant injury concerns to teammates that would boost his usage, Murphy III's points props on one day rest remain systematically undervalued by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to his rest-dependent performance patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Trey Murphy III's points props on one day rest offer consistent value, with unders hitting 64.3% of the time and generating positive ROI. The four-game under streak reinforces the underlying trend rather than suggesting regression. Target unders when the line sits at 17.5 or higher, especially in road games where additional fatigue factors compound the rest disadvantage. Main risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his scoring.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 21.5 | 20.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 16.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 15.5 | 27.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 31.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 14.5 | 14.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 15.5 | 21.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 18.5 | 11.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 16.5 | 16.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 17.5 | 8.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 28.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Trey Murphy III goes 5-9-0 on points overs with one day rest, hitting just 35.7% overs across 14 games. This represents a clear systematic underperformance that creates betting value on the under side of his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Trey Murphy III points props with one day rest. The 64.3% under rate and +22.7% ROI on unders provide consistent value, especially with his current four-game under streak reinforcing the trend.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Points 1 day rest?
Trey Murphy III averages 17.57 points on one day rest, just 0.07 points above the typical 17.5 line. This minimal edge creates tight margins that consistently favor unders given his rest-dependent performance struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trey Murphy III under props when he's playing on one day rest, particularly road games where fatigue compounds. Avoid when key teammates are injured and his usage rate spikes significantly above normal rotation patterns.