Trey Murphy III's assists prop has been a coin flip over his last 10 games, going 5-5 with a 50% over rate. However, Murphy is averaging 2.8 assists against a 3.1 line, creating a -0.3 differential that favors the under despite the even record.
Expert Analysis
The even 5-5 record masks a more telling story in Trey Murphy III's assist production. Murphy's 2.8 average sits meaningfully below the 3.1 line, suggesting oddsmakers may be overvaluing his playmaking role in New Orleans' offense. This differential becomes more significant when considering Murphy's primary function as a floor-spacing wing rather than a primary ball handler. The Pelicans typically run their offense through established playmakers, limiting Murphy's assist opportunities to secondary actions and hockey assists that don't register statistically. His current three-game under streak aligns with this underlying trend, as regression toward his true assist mean appears to be taking hold. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing, but the negative differential suggests the under has been the sharper side despite the balanced record. Murphy's assist production tends to be matchup-dependent, spiking against teams that switch heavily and allowing him more post-up opportunities to find cutters, but remaining subdued in standard defensive sets where his role stays perimeter-focused.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.3 differential between Murphy's 2.8 average and the 3.1 line represents genuine value, especially with his current three-game under streak suggesting market correction. Target this prop when Murphy faces disciplined defenses that limit secondary playmaking opportunities, but avoid against switching-heavy teams that could inflate his assist chances through post-ups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Murphy III's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Trey Murphy III has gone 5-5 on his assists over/under in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. This even split shows balanced performance but masks underlying value in the betting market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Murphy III Assists last 10 games?
Lean under on Murphy's assists prop. Despite the 5-5 record, his 2.8 average sits below the typical 3.1 line, creating a -0.3 differential that favors the under side with medium confidence.
What's Trey Murphy III's average Assists last 10 games?
Murphy is averaging 2.8 assists over his last 10 games, which runs 0.3 assists below the standard 3.1 line. This negative differential suggests the market may be overvaluing his playmaking contributions.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murphy's assists under against disciplined defenses that limit secondary playmaking and force him into his primary shooter role. Avoid when he faces switching-heavy teams that create post-up assist opportunities.