Tre Jones has been a consistent over performer on his three-pointers made prop in home games, hitting the over in 11 of 17 games (64.7%) with an impressive +0.7 differential above the typical 0.56 line. This 23.5% ROI on overs suggests strong value backing Jones to exceed expectations at the Frost Bank Center.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling home court advantage for Tre Jones's three-point production that extends well beyond typical variance. Averaging 1.24 made threes at home against a 0.56 line represents a massive 121% differential, suggesting either consistent line mispricing or genuine environmental factors favoring his perimeter shooting. The 64.7% over rate across 17 games provides a robust sample size that indicates sustainable edge rather than random clustering. Jones appears to benefit from familiar shooting backgrounds, crowd energy, and potentially favorable game scripts that allow San Antonio's backup point guard more offensive freedom at home. The streak data shows impressive consistency, with his longest over streak reaching five games compared to just two consecutive unders maximum. This pattern suggests Jones thrives in the comfort of home conditions, whether through better shot selection, increased confidence, or tactical deployment that emphasizes his three-point attempts. The current single-game under streak actually presents opportunity, as regression toward his strong home mean appears likely. With no significant injury concerns or role changes evident, this trend appears built on legitimate factors rather than unsustainable hot shooting, making it a reliable betting angle for home games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 64.7% over rate and substantial +0.7 differential above typical lines creates consistent value, particularly given Jones's comfort level shooting at home. The key edge lies in books potentially undervaluing his three-point volume in familiar surroundings. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or blowout scenarios limiting his minutes, but the track record suggests backing overs on Jones's three-pointers made in San Antonio home games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Tre Jones has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 11 of 17 home games (64.7% rate) this season, generating a strong 23.5% ROI for over bettors while under bettors faced -32.6% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the over on Tre Jones's three-pointers made in home games. The 64.7% over rate and +0.7 differential above typical lines creates consistent value, making overs the clear preferred side.
What's Tre Jones's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Tre Jones averages 1.24 made three-pointers in home games, significantly exceeding the typical 0.56 line by 0.68 makes per game, representing a 121% differential that suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones three-pointer overs specifically in San Antonio home games where he shows the strongest edge. Avoid road games where this data advantage doesn't apply, focusing betting activity on Frost Bank Center contests.