Tre Jones shows a modest edge on steals overs in away games, hitting 52.6% (10-9-0) with a +0.2 differential above the typical 1.03 line. While the sample spans three months, the minimal ROI edge and recent under streak suggest caution on this prop.
Expert Analysis
Tre Jones's away steals performance presents an intriguing but limited edge that requires careful context. His 1.26 average against a 1.03 line creates theoretical value, but the 52.6% hit rate barely exceeds the breakeven threshold needed to overcome juice. The +0.5% ROI on overs tells the story - this is a marginal advantage at best. What makes this trend noteworthy is its consistency across a solid 19-game sample from January through April, suggesting some underlying factors beyond random variance. Away games often feature different defensive schemes and pace adjustments that could benefit active hands like Jones. However, the steals category is notoriously volatile, with game flow and opponent tendencies heavily influencing opportunities. The current single-game under streak, while short, reminds us that steals props can go cold quickly. Without additional context on opponent pace, foul rates, or San Antonio's defensive positioning on the road, this trend appears more statistical artifact than sustainable edge. The flat recent performance and modest differential suggest regression potential.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 1.26 average versus 1.03 line provides mathematical value, but the minimal 0.5% ROI and current under streak limit conviction. This prop works best when San Antonio faces uptempo opponents or teams prone to turnovers, but the volatility of steals makes it a risky play without stronger supporting factors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Steals prop record away games?
Tre Jones has gone over his steals prop in 10 of 19 away games (52.6%) from January to April 2024, with 9 unders and no pushes, creating a slight positive trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Steals away games?
Lean over on Tre Jones steals props in away games. His 1.26 average beats the typical 1.03 line, but the minimal ROI edge requires selective spots against turnover-prone opponents.
What's Tre Jones's average Steals away games?
Tre Jones averages 1.26 steals per away game, which is 0.23 above the standard 1.03 line. This differential provides mathematical value but comes with inherent volatility in the steals category.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones steals overs when San Antonio plays away against high-pace teams or squads with elevated turnover rates. Avoid during back-to-back situations or against methodical, low-turnover opponents.