Tre Jones shows concerning over volatility on one day rest, hitting just 46.2% of overs across 26 games with a brutal -11.9% ROI for over bettors. The under presents modest value at +2.8% ROI despite averaging exactly his closing line of 10.73 points. Lean under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating contradiction in Tre Jones's scoring patterns on one day rest. While his 10.73 average perfectly matches typical closing lines, the distribution heavily favors under results with 54% frequency and positive ROI. This suggests Jones experiences more dramatic scoring droughts than explosive games when playing on standard rest, likely due to his role as a facilitator-first point guard who defers to teammates when fresh. The Spurs' pace and offensive hierarchy become crucial factors, as Jones typically sees reduced shot attempts when Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell are healthy and rested. His longest over streak of just four games compared to extended under runs indicates inconsistent offensive aggression. The negative over ROI despite hitting the average suggests books are efficiently pricing his ceiling, making overs a losing proposition long-term. Jones's conservative playing style and team-first mentality become more pronounced with adequate rest, as he focuses on distribution rather than personal scoring. The under trend gains strength from his tendency to have multiple games well below expectation rather than consistent moderate overs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54% under rate combined with positive ROI creates legitimate value despite the average matching lines perfectly. Jones's facilitator role intensifies on standard rest, leading to more games significantly below expectation than explosive scoring outbursts. Target unders when the Spurs are healthy and Jones isn't forced into primary scorer duties due to injuries.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 17.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 10.5 | 22.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 17.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 4.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Tre Jones goes 12-14 over/under on points props with one day rest, hitting overs just 46.2% of the time across 26 games. The under has been the more profitable side with a positive return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Tre Jones points with one day rest. The 54% under frequency and +2.8% ROI provide legitimate value, especially when the Spurs roster is healthy and Jones focuses on facilitating rather than scoring.
What's Tre Jones's average Points 1 day rest?
Tre Jones averages exactly 10.73 points on one day rest, matching typical closing lines perfectly. Despite the identical average and line, the distribution heavily favors under results with better long-term profitability than overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones under when the Spurs are healthy and he's playing his natural facilitator role. Avoid his props when key teammates are injured and he's forced into primary scoring duties or extended minutes.