Tre Jones shows a slight edge toward overs in home games with a 52.6% hit rate (10-9 record) and averaging 11.63 points against a 10.34 line. The +1.3 differential suggests modest value, though the razor-thin +0.5% ROI indicates this isn't a goldmine. Lean over with caution.
Expert Analysis
The Tre Jones points trend at home reveals a player who consistently exceeds modest expectations, though not by overwhelming margins. His 11.63 average against a 10.34 line represents genuine value, suggesting oddsmakers may underestimate his home comfort level. The four-game over streak indicates current momentum, while his longest streaks (4 overs, 3 unders) show reasonable volatility without extreme swings. As San Antonio's primary facilitator, Jones benefits from familiar surroundings and supportive crowds that can elevate his aggressive scoring instincts. The 52.6% over rate isn't dominant but represents sustainable profitability in a large sample. However, the minimal +0.5% ROI on overs suggests this edge is already being priced efficiently by sharper books. Jones's role as a pass-first guard means his scoring output remains secondary to playmaking duties, creating natural variance. The lack of extreme splits data actually strengthens the case—this appears to be a consistent, if modest, home-court advantage rather than situation-dependent variance. The trend's persistence across 19 games suggests legitimate predictive value rather than random clustering.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +1.3 point differential and current four-game over streak provide solid foundation for continued success. Jones appears genuinely more aggressive at home, and the 52.6% hit rate offers sustainable edge despite minimal ROI. Target this prop when the line sits at 10.5 or below for maximum value. Primary risk remains his pass-first mentality limiting ceiling, but the data supports modest over expectations in San Antonio.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 17.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 10.5 | 22.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 2.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 17.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Points prop record home games?
Tre Jones has gone over his points prop in 10 of 19 home games (52.6%), with 9 unders, averaging 11.63 points against a typical 10.34 line for a +1.3 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Points home games?
Lean over on Tre Jones points props at home. His 52.6% over rate and +1.3 average differential provide modest but consistent value, especially on lines of 10.5 or below.
What's Tre Jones's average Points home games?
Tre Jones averages 11.63 points in home games compared to his typical 10.34 line, creating a +1.3 point differential that suggests consistent value on over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones points overs when the line is 10.5 or below at home games. His current four-game over streak and home-court comfort level create optimal conditions for continued success.