Tre Jones has been a clear under play on assists props, hitting just 40% overs in his last 10 games while averaging 6.7 assists against a 7.0 line. The -0.3 differential and +14.6% ROI on unders signals a systematic underperformance that creates betting value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Tre Jones's assist production has been notably inconsistent over his last 10 games, with the Spurs point guard struggling to reach his projected 7.0 assist line more often than not. The 6.7 average represents a meaningful 0.3 assist shortfall that translates to real betting value, particularly given the 4-6-0 over/under record that heavily favors the under. This trend appears rooted in San Antonio's evolving offensive dynamics, where Jones has seen his playmaking opportunities fluctuate based on game flow and the development of younger teammates who are increasingly handling the ball in late-season scenarios. The longest under streak of four games suggests this isn't random variance but rather a systematic shift in how the Spurs utilize Jones in their offensive sets. What's particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance - Jones isn't just missing by small margins on a few games, but rather showing a pattern of falling short of the seven-assist threshold that bookmakers continue to set. The lack of recent explosive assist games (longest over streak of just one) indicates limited upside potential, while the sustained nature of the trend suggests it may persist through similar game situations and rotations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with a -0.3 assist differential creates a clear edge, though the sample size demands caution. Target this play when Jones faces teams that limit transition opportunities or when San Antonio is expected to play from behind, forcing more individual scoring attempts. The main risk is a blowout game where Jones sees extended fourth-quarter run with bench players, inflating his assist totals artificially.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Tre Jones has gone 4-6-0 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. This translates to a -23.6% ROI on overs while unders have generated a profitable +14.6% return, making him a consistent under play.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Tre Jones assists props. He's averaging 6.7 assists against a 7.0 line with 60% unders hitting over his last 10 games. The -0.3 differential and positive ROI on unders create a clear statistical edge.
What's Tre Jones's average Assists last 10 games?
Tre Jones is averaging 6.7 assists over his last 10 games, which falls 0.3 assists short of the typical 7.0 line. This consistent shortfall represents the core value in betting his assist unders during this recent stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones assist unders when San Antonio faces defensive teams that limit transition opportunities or when the Spurs are projected underdogs likely to trail. Avoid when they're heavy favorites against poor defensive teams that could create blowout scenarios.