Tre Jones delivers exceptional home court assist value, hitting the over in 63.2% of games (12-7-0 record) while averaging 7.32 assists against a 7.03 line. The +0.3 differential and impressive +20.6% ROI on overs signals a legitimate home court edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
Tre Jones transforms into a more aggressive playmaker at the Frost Bank Center, where the familiar surroundings and supportive crowd appear to elevate his court vision and passing confidence. The 7.32 home average represents a meaningful 4.1% bump over his typical line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his enhanced home performance. This isn't random variance—Jones consistently finds extra passing lanes when playing in San Antonio's system-friendly environment. The Spurs' home offensive rhythm allows Jones more time to orchestrate, leading to cleaner entry passes and better assist opportunities. His 63.2% over rate across 19 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the balanced 4-game over and under streaks indicate sustainable performance rather than hot-and-cold volatility. The +20.6% ROI on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books continue setting lines that undervalue Jones's home court assist production. However, regression risk exists if the Spurs face elite defensive teams that can disrupt San Antonio's home flow or if Jones encounters foul trouble that limits his floor time during crucial playmaking windows.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Jones's 63.2% over rate and +0.3 average differential create a sustainable edge in home games, particularly when San Antonio faces teams that struggle defending pick-and-roll actions. Target this prop when the Spurs play faster-paced opponents or teams with poor interior defense that allows Jones cleaner passing windows. The main risk involves elite defensive matchups that could limit San Antonio's offensive flow and reduce Jones's assist opportunities through increased turnovers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tre Jones's Assists prop record home games?
Tre Jones posts a strong 12-7-0 record on assists overs in home games, hitting 63.2% of the time. He averages 7.32 assists at home against a typical 7.03 line, creating a consistent +0.3 edge for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tre Jones Assists home games?
Lean over on Tre Jones assists in home games. His 63.2% over rate and +20.6% ROI demonstrate clear value, especially against teams with weaker pick-and-roll defense that allows more assist opportunities in San Antonio's system.
What's Tre Jones's average Assists home games?
Tre Jones averages 7.32 assists in home games, which sits 0.3 assists above his typical 7.03 line. This consistent differential of 4.1% represents meaningful value that oddsmakers haven't fully recognized in their home pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tre Jones assists overs in home games against faster-paced teams or opponents with poor interior defense. Avoid when facing elite defensive units that can disrupt San Antonio's offensive flow and limit clean passing opportunities.