Trae Young's three-point props present a clear under opportunity with just 43.8% overs across 73 games. Despite averaging 3.15 makes against a 2.92 line, the under delivers +7.2% ROI while overs lose -16.3%. This suggests consistent line inflation that smart money can exploit.
Expert Analysis
The Trae Young three-point under represents one of the cleaner prop edges in the NBA market. While Young's 3.15 average appears to favor overs against the typical 2.92 line, the 43.8% over rate reveals the crucial disconnect between raw averages and betting reality. This pattern suggests books are pricing in Young's ceiling games while underweighting his inconsistent shooting nights. Young's three-point volume creates natural variance - he attempts enough shots to occasionally explode for 6-7 makes, but those outlier performances skew the average upward while occurring infrequently enough to make overs a losing proposition. The -16.3% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues Young's three-point upside, likely influenced by his reputation as a volume shooter and highlight-reel performances. The under's +7.2% ROI across 73 games provides substantial sample size confidence. Young's shooting consistency issues, combined with defensive attention that can disrupt his rhythm, create an environment where the under hits at a sustainable 56.2% clip. This isn't a short-term trend but rather a fundamental market inefficiency driven by the gap between perception and production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.2% under rate and positive ROI create a sustainable edge, but the modest +0.2 average differential prevents this from being a slam dunk. Target this prop when Young faces defensive pressure or in games where pace could limit his three-point attempts. The main risk is regression toward the mean, but 73 games suggest this pattern has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trae Young's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Trae Young has gone over his three-point prop in just 32 of 73 games (43.8%) this season. The under has hit 41 times, creating a clear pattern of line inflation that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trae Young 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Trae Young's three-point props. The under hits 56.2% of the time with +7.2% ROI, while overs lose money at -16.3% ROI despite Young's 3.15 average seeming favorable.
What's Trae Young's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Trae Young averages 3.15 three-pointers made per game against a typical 2.92 line, showing a +0.2 differential. However, this modest edge gets negated by the under hitting 56.2% of games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trae Young three-point unders consistently, as this appears to be a season-long market inefficiency. Focus on games where defensive attention or pace could limit his volume and rhythm.