Trae Young's steals prop presents a perfectly balanced puzzle with 21-22 over/under record and 1.37 average matching the 1.38 line almost exactly. The current four-game over streak creates slight value on the under given the -6.8% over ROI and natural regression tendency.
Expert Analysis
Trae Young's steal production represents one of the most efficiently priced props in the market, with his 1.37 average sitting just 0.01 below the typical 1.38 line. This microscopic differential reflects the sportsbooks' sharp understanding of Young's defensive engagement patterns. The point guard's steal rate correlates heavily with game flow and Atlanta's defensive scheme, which has remained remarkably consistent throughout the sample. Young's 48.8% over rate suggests books have found the sweet spot, but the -6.8% ROI on overs indicates slight overvaluation when the public gravitates toward the flashy steal plays. The current four-game over streak, while matching his season-long high, creates a natural regression spot given the historical balance. Young's steal production lacks the volatility seen in blocks or assists, making it less prone to dramatic swings but also offering fewer exploitable edges. The absence of meaningful home/road or opponent-strength splits reinforces that Young's defensive effort remains steady regardless of context, though this consistency works against finding situational advantages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The current four-game over streak creates regression value when combined with the negative over ROI and perfectly balanced historical record. Young's steal production shows remarkable consistency, making dramatic deviations unlikely. Target spots where the line creeps to 1.5 steals for maximum value, as the 1.37 average suggests he'll fall short more often than not at the higher number.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trae Young's Steals prop record all games?
Trae Young has gone over his steals prop 21 times and under 22 times across 43 games, creating a 48.8% over rate. His record shows remarkable balance with just a one-game difference between outcomes.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trae Young Steals all games?
Lean under on Trae Young's steals props, especially during his current four-game over streak. The negative ROI on overs and his 1.37 average below the typical 1.38 line create slight but consistent value.
What's Trae Young's average Steals all games?
Trae Young averages 1.37 steals per game, sitting 0.01 below the typical 1.38 line. This microscopic difference represents one of the most efficiently priced props in the market with minimal edge either direction.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trae Young steals unders during over streaks and when lines reach 1.5 steals. His consistent production and negative over ROI create the best value when regression factors align with inflated numbers.