Trae Young's assists prop at home shows a clear bullish edge, hitting the over in 55.3% of games with a positive 0.5 differential between his 11.05 average and typical 10.55 lines. The 5.5% ROI on overs across 38 games creates a sustainable betting advantage. LEAN OVER on Young's assists in Atlanta.
Expert Analysis
The State Farm Arena advantage for Trae Young's playmaking runs deeper than simple home court comfort. Young's 11.05 assist average at home represents genuine statistical value against market lines consistently set around 10.5, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his enhanced court vision in familiar surroundings. The 55.3% over rate across 38 games provides meaningful sample size validation, while the positive ROI indicates this isn't just random variance but sustainable edge. Young's assist production benefits from Atlanta's uptempo home style and crowd energy that often forces opponents into reactive defensive schemes, creating more driving lanes and kick-out opportunities. The Hawks' offensive system at home emphasizes ball movement through Young, particularly in transition situations where his vision thrives. However, the modest 0.5 differential suggests this edge isn't massive, and the 14.6% under ROI indicates significant downside when Young struggles. Blowout games pose the primary risk, as garbage time can limit Young's fourth-quarter playmaking opportunities. The trend's persistence across multiple seasons suggests legitimate home court factors rather than temporary hot streaks, making this a reliable angle for selective betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's consistent 11.05 home average against 10.55 lines creates legitimate value, supported by 55.3% over rate and positive ROI. The edge works best when Atlanta plays competitive games against quality opponents who force extended minutes and ball movement. Primary risk comes from potential blowouts limiting fourth-quarter opportunities, but the statistical foundation supports selective over betting on Young's assists at State Farm Arena.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 12.5 | 15.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 16.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-23 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-28 | OPP | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 10.5 | 14.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 9.5 | 12.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trae Young's Assists prop record home games?
Trae Young's assists prop record at home games stands at 21-17-0 over/under (55.3% overs) across 38 games. This represents a solid winning percentage with positive expected value, generating 5.5% ROI on over bets while showing -14.6% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trae Young Assists home games?
Lean over on Trae Young's assists at home games. His 11.05 average significantly exceeds typical 10.55 lines, creating consistent value. The 55.3% over rate and positive ROI provide statistical backing, though avoid in potential blowout scenarios.
What's Trae Young's average Assists home games?
Trae Young averages 11.05 assists per game at home, compared to typical betting lines around 10.55. This creates a positive 0.5 differential that represents genuine value, as his home court playmaking consistently exceeds market expectations across a meaningful sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when Atlanta plays competitive home games against quality opponents who force extended minutes. Avoid potential blowouts where garbage time limits Young's fourth-quarter playmaking. Lines around 10.5 offer optimal value given his 11.05 home average.