Tobias Harris has hit exactly 50% of his three-point overs this season with a 15-15-0 record, but his 1.7 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.43 line. This +0.27 differential suggests consistent value on overs despite the neutral win rate, making Harris a lean over play in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
The surface-level 50% over rate masks a compelling underlying story for Tobias Harris's three-point production. His 1.7 season average sitting 0.27 makes above the standard 1.43 line indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Detroit's offense. Harris has transformed from a complementary shooter in Philadelphia to a primary offensive weapon for the Pistons, seeing increased usage and more designed three-point looks. The even 15-15 split actually represents positive value when you consider he's consistently exceeding expectations by nearly two makes per game over a 30-game sample. This differential is particularly significant for three-point props, where variance is high and small edges compound over time. The lack of extreme streaks (longest runs of 3-4 games) suggests sustainable production rather than boom-bust volatility. Harris's veteran consistency and Detroit's pace-up style create an environment where his three-point volume should remain elevated. The key concern is potential regression to his career norms, but his current role and the Pistons' developmental timeline suggest this elevated production has staying power. Books appear slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize Harris's evolved offensive profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.27 differential between Harris's 1.7 average and the 1.43 line represents genuine value that outweighs the neutral 50% hit rate. His expanded role in Detroit's offense creates sustainable volume, and books haven't fully adjusted to his increased three-point responsibility. Target overs in up-tempo games or when the line stays at 1.5, but avoid when it moves to 2.5.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tobias Harris's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Tobias Harris has gone over his three-point prop in exactly 15 of 30 games this season for a 50% hit rate. His 15-15-0 record shows perfect balance, but the -4.5% ROI on both sides reflects standard betting juice rather than edge identification.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tobias Harris 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Tobias Harris three-point props. His 1.7 season average significantly exceeds the typical 1.43 line, creating consistent value despite the neutral 50% win rate. Target overs when the line stays at 1.5 or below for maximum edge.
What's Tobias Harris's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Harris averages 1.7 three-pointers made per game this season, which is 0.27 makes above the standard 1.43 line. This substantial differential indicates he's consistently exceeding market expectations and suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris three-point overs in up-tempo games where Detroit faces high-scoring opponents. Avoid when the line inflates to 2.5, and prioritize games where he's listed at 1.5 makes to maximize the value from his elevated 1.7 average.