Tobias Harris steals props present a compelling over opportunity with a dominant 13-6-0 record (68.4% hit rate) and impressive +0.6 differential above typical lines. The 30.6% ROI over 19 games suggests consistent value, making this a strong lean over in most situations.
Expert Analysis
Harris's steals production significantly exceeds market expectations, averaging 1.37 steals against a typical 0.76 line - an 80% premium that indicates books haven't properly adjusted to his defensive engagement this season. The 68.4% over rate across 19 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +30.6% ROI demonstrates consistent profitability beyond just win rate. What makes this trend particularly compelling is Harris's role transformation in Detroit, where increased defensive responsibility and floor time have naturally elevated his steal opportunities. The Pistons' faster pace and frequent deficit situations force more aggressive defensive schemes, putting Harris in positions to generate steals through passing lane disruptions and pressure defense. His 8-game over streak earlier this season shows the sustainability of this production level, while the longest under streak of just 2 games suggests minimal negative variance. The concerning element is the -39.7% under ROI, indicating when Harris fails to hit, it's often by significant margins, but the frequency heavily favors over betting. Books appear slow to adjust lines upward, creating persistent value for sharp bettors willing to capitalize on this market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Harris's 68.4% over rate and +0.6 average differential create consistent value against slow-adjusting sportsbooks. The ideal conditions involve games where Detroit faces uptempo opponents or plays from behind, forcing aggressive defensive schemes that maximize steal opportunities. The primary risk is Harris's occasional complete whiffs that drive the -39.7% under ROI, but the frequency strongly favors over betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tobias Harris's Steals prop record all games?
Tobias Harris has gone over his steals prop in 13 of 19 games (68.4%) with a 13-6-0 record. He's averaging 1.37 steals per game against typical lines around 0.76, creating a significant +0.6 differential that has generated 30.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tobias Harris Steals all games?
Bet over on Tobias Harris steals props. His 68.4% hit rate and +0.6 average differential above lines create consistent value. The 30.6% ROI over 19 games demonstrates sustainable profitability, making overs the clear preferred play in most game situations.
What's Tobias Harris's average Steals all games?
Tobias Harris averages 1.37 steals per game this season, significantly above his typical prop line of 0.76. This +0.6 differential represents an 80% premium over market expectations, indicating books haven't properly adjusted to his increased defensive production in Detroit.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris steals overs in uptempo games or when Detroit plays from behind, as these situations maximize aggressive defensive schemes. His 8-game over streak shows sustainability, while books remain slow to adjust lines upward, creating persistent value opportunities.