Tobias Harris has been a consistent under performer on assists props, hitting the over just 30% of the time across his last 10 games. With a -0.7 differential between his 2.3 average and typical 3.0 lines, the under has generated strong +33.6% ROI. This represents a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Harris's assist struggles stem from Detroit's offensive structure and his role as primarily a spot-up shooter rather than a primary facilitator. The Pistons rank among the league's worst in pace and ball movement, limiting opportunities for Harris to rack up assists. His 2.3 average represents a significant departure from career norms, suggesting this isn't just variance but a fundamental shift in usage. The 4-game under streak within this sample indicates books may be slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value. Harris's assist totals correlate strongly with Detroit's overall offensive efficiency - when the Pistons struggle to score, his playmaking opportunities evaporate. The 30% over rate is particularly damning given that assist props typically see more balanced outcomes. Most concerning for over bettors is that Harris has shown no signs of increased facilitation even in Detroit's better offensive performances. The -42.7% ROI on overs suggests this trend has been consistent and predictable, not driven by a few outlier performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Harris's role in Detroit's offense simply doesn't generate consistent assist opportunities, and the 30% over rate with strong under ROI creates a mathematical edge. Target this prop when lines sit at 3.0 or higher, particularly in games where Detroit faces strong defenses that could limit overall possessions. Main risk is potential lineup changes or increased usage if injuries occur.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tobias Harris's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Harris has gone 3-7-0 over/under on assists props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents one of the more lopsided prop records among regular rotation players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tobias Harris Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Harris assists props. The 30% over rate and +33.6% under ROI create clear mathematical value, especially when lines are set at 3.0 or higher.
What's Tobias Harris's average Assists last 10 games?
Harris is averaging 2.3 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.7 below the typical 3.0 line. This differential has been consistent rather than driven by outlier performances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris assist unders when Detroit faces strong defenses or in back-to-back situations where pace typically slows. Lines at 3.0+ offer the best value given his current role.