Tobias Harris has gone under his assists prop in 55% of away games this season, posting a 9-11-0 record that suggests consistent underperformance. Despite averaging 3.7 assists against a typical 3.15 line, the under bet shows positive 5.0% ROI while overs lose at -14.1%. Lean under on road assists props.
Expert Analysis
The road environment consistently disrupts Tobias Harris's playmaking rhythm, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. Harris averages 3.7 assists on the road, which appears favorable against the standard 3.15 line, but this surface-level analysis misses the crucial distribution factor. The 55% under rate combined with positive ROI on under bets indicates that Harris frequently falls short of inflated lines set by oddsmakers who overvalue his assist average. Road games inherently reduce assist opportunities through disrupted offensive flow, unfamiliar shooting backgrounds affecting teammates' makes, and increased defensive pressure that forces Harris into scoring mode rather than facilitating. The Pistons' overall offensive struggles on the road compound this effect, as fewer made baskets directly translate to fewer assists credited. Harris's recent four-game under streak followed by just one over suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his road playmaking limitations. The persistence of this trend across 20 games indicates a structural issue rather than random variance, making it a reliable betting angle when the line sits at 3.5 or higher.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a clear mathematical edge, particularly when Harris's line is set at 3.5 or higher. Road games consistently limit his playmaking opportunities through pace disruption and teammate shooting variance. Primary risk comes from potential blowout games where Harris racks up garbage-time assists, but the Pistons' competitive struggles make this scenario less likely on the road.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Tobias Harris props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tobias Harris's Assists prop record away games?
Tobias Harris has gone 9-11-0 on assists overs in away games this season, hitting just 45% of over bets. This translates to a -14.1% ROI on overs while under bets show a profitable 5.0% return, indicating consistent underperformance against road assist lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tobias Harris Assists away games?
Bet under on Tobias Harris assists props in away games. The 55% under rate and positive ROI create a mathematical edge, especially when his line is 3.5 or higher. Road games consistently limit his playmaking through pace disruption and teammate shooting variance.
What's Tobias Harris's average Assists away games?
Tobias Harris averages 3.7 assists in away games, which is 0.55 assists above the typical 3.15 line. However, this average is misleading as the distribution favors under results 55% of the time, creating value on under bets despite the seemingly favorable average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tobias Harris under assists when his road line is set at 3.5 or higher, particularly in games where the Pistons face strong defensive teams. Avoid betting after blowout losses when garbage time could inflate assist totals in subsequent games.