Tobias Harris has been a consistent under performer on assists props, hitting the over just 40% of the time across 25 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 3.32 assists against a 3.02 line, the under has delivered steady 14.6% returns, making it the clear lean.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose assists production doesn't translate to consistent prop betting success. Harris averages 3.32 assists against a typical 3.02 line, creating a seemingly favorable 0.3 differential, yet overs have failed spectacularly with just a 40% hit rate. This disconnect reveals the harsh reality of prop betting variance versus raw averages. Harris operates as Detroit's primary forward in a system that doesn't consistently generate high-assist opportunities for non-guards. His role focuses more on scoring and rebounding, with assists coming as secondary production. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates remarkable consistency in a market that often overvalues counting stats based on season averages. The current two-game under streak aligns with his longer patterns, including a season-high four-game under run. Without significant role changes or pace shifts in Detroit's offense, this trend appears sustainable. Harris simply isn't asked to be a primary facilitator often enough to justify the inflated lines that create this edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with a 60% hit rate creates a sustainable edge despite Harris averaging above the typical line. His role as a scoring-first forward in Detroit's system limits consistent playmaking opportunities. Target unders when lines sit at 3.0 or higher, as his ceiling games don't occur frequently enough to offset the consistent failures to reach inflated numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Tobias Harris props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tobias Harris's Assists prop record all games?
Harris has gone 10-15 on assists overs across 25 games, hitting just 40% with a devastating -23.6% ROI. Unders have been far more reliable at 60% with a solid 14.6% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tobias Harris Assists all games?
Lean under on Harris assists props. The 60% under hit rate with 14.6% ROI creates a clear edge despite his 3.32 average. His scoring-first role limits consistent playmaking opportunities in Detroit's system.
What's Tobias Harris's average Assists all games?
Harris averages 3.32 assists per game against a typical 3.02 line, creating a positive 0.3 differential. However, this average is misleading as overs have failed 60% of the time despite the favorable numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris assists unders when lines are set at 3.0 or higher. His role as a scoring-focused forward means ceiling assist games are rare, making inflated lines particularly vulnerable to under results.