Terry Rozier has delivered exactly 50% overs on his three-pointers made props over the last 10 games, hitting 2.6 per game against a 1.8 line. Despite the strong +0.8 differential, both sides show negative ROI, suggesting market efficiency has caught up.
Expert Analysis
Rozier's three-point production presents a fascinating case study in market adjustment. His 2.6 makes per game significantly exceed the typical 1.8 line, creating what appears to be consistent value on overs. However, the negative ROI on both sides reveals the betting market has likely recalibrated, with books setting higher lines or adjusting juice to eliminate the edge. The 50% over rate masks underlying volatility - Rozier's longest under streak hit four games, followed by streaks that never exceeded two overs. This suggests his three-point volume is highly game-script dependent, likely correlating with Miami's pace, opponent strength, and his role alongside other Heat scorers. The current two-game over streak sits at his maximum, indicating potential regression. Without splits data showing his performance in different contexts, the trend appears driven more by situational factors than sustainable skill changes. Miami's offensive system and Rozier's usage rate in catch-and-shoot versus off-the-dribble attempts would be crucial factors missing from this surface-level analysis.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Rozier's 2.6 average creates an appealing +0.8 differential over typical lines, the negative ROI on both sides indicates the market has efficiently priced this trend. The 50% hit rate with high volatility suggests his three-point production is too game-script dependent for consistent profit. Wait for more favorable situational spots or clearer directional indicators.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Terry Rozier has gone 5-5 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50%. Despite averaging 2.6 makes against typical 1.8 lines, both overs and unders show -4.5% ROI, indicating market efficiency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Pass on Terry Rozier's three-pointers made props currently. The 50% hit rate offers no edge despite strong counting stats, and negative ROI on both sides suggests the market has adjusted to his recent production levels.
What's Terry Rozier's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Terry Rozier is averaging 2.6 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, creating a strong +0.8 differential against the typical 1.8 line. However, this apparent value hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Wait for situational advantages like pace-up spots against weak perimeter defenses or games where Miami projects to trail and need increased three-point volume. Avoid betting during his current streak peaks or without clear contextual edges.