Terry Rozier's three-pointers made prop at home shows modest over value with an 8-7-0 record (53.3% overs) and a significant +0.9 differential above the typical 1.83 line. His 2.73 home average suggests consistent volume, though the edge is marginal. Lean Over with selective timing.
Expert Analysis
Terry Rozier's home three-point production reveals a player finding his rhythm in Miami's system, particularly benefiting from the familiar confines of Kaseya Center. The 2.73 average against a 1.83 line represents a meaningful 49% cushion, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his role expansion with the Heat. Rozier's three-point attempts likely increase at home due to crowd energy and comfort level, a common pattern for veteran guards adapting to new systems. The 53.3% over rate, while not overwhelming, becomes more valuable when considering the +0.9 differential - this isn't just about hitting overs, but hitting them with room to spare. However, the modest +1.8% ROI indicates tight margins, and the recent 1-game under streak following a longest 4-game under run suggests some volatility. The lack of split data limits deeper analysis, but Rozier's veteran status and Miami's pace-friendly system should sustain this slight home advantage. The key risk lies in game script - blowouts in either direction can limit his minutes and shot attempts, making this prop more viable in competitive contests where Rozier sees full usage.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Rozier's 2.73 home average provides a solid foundation against the typical 1.83 line, and the 53.3% over rate shows consistency despite recent volatility. Target this prop in competitive games where Rozier projects for 30+ minutes, avoiding potential blowouts that could limit his fourth-quarter opportunities. The modest edge requires selective betting rather than blind backing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Terry Rozier has gone over his three-pointers made prop 8 times and under 7 times in 15 home games (53.3% over rate). His 2.73 home average significantly exceeds the typical 1.83 line, creating a +0.9 differential that suggests consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean Over on Terry Rozier's three-pointers made props at home. His 2.73 average provides a solid cushion above typical lines around 1.83, and the 53.3% over rate shows consistency. Focus on competitive games where he'll see full minutes.
What's Terry Rozier's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Terry Rozier averages 2.73 three-pointers made in home games compared to the typical 1.83 line, creating a +0.9 differential. This 49% cushion above the betting line indicates he's consistently exceeding market expectations at Kaseya Center.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Terry Rozier's three-pointers made props in competitive home games where he projects for 30+ minutes. Avoid potential blowouts that could limit fourth-quarter usage. His home comfort and Miami's pace create the best conditions for volume.