Terry Rozier has hit the over on his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60%), averaging 1.0 steals against a typical 0.5 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value in backing Rozier's defensive activity going forward.
Expert Analysis
Terry Rozier's steal production has shown consistent upside against market expectations, with his 1.0 average doubling the standard 0.5 line over this 10-game sample. The 60% over rate isn't just noise—it reflects Rozier's aggressive perimeter defense and Miami's switching scheme that puts him in favorable steal positions. The Heat's defensive identity under Erik Spoelstra emphasizes disruption, and Rozier has embraced that role since joining Miami. His 6-4 over record demonstrates sustainability rather than variance, as steal props typically require consistent defensive engagement rather than explosive single-game performances. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to Rozier's increased defensive activity in Miami's system. However, the modest 1.0 average suggests this isn't about massive steal totals but rather consistent low-level production that beats the low line. The lack of extreme streaks (longest over streak of just 2) actually supports the trend's reliability, showing steady rather than volatile performance. Regression risk exists if Rozier faces less ball-dominant opponents or if Miami shifts defensive schemes, but his current role and the team's defensive philosophy support continued over performance on steal props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Rozier's 60% over rate and doubled average versus the line indicate genuine edge rather than variance. The +14.6% ROI confirms market inefficiency in pricing his defensive activity within Miami's aggressive scheme. Target overs when facing ball-heavy offenses, but avoid during potential rest games or blowout scenarios where defensive intensity typically drops.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Terry Rozier has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. He's averaging 1.0 steals per game against the typical 0.5 line, generating a +14.6% ROI on over bets during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Terry Rozier's steals props. His 60% over rate and 1.0 average against a 0.5 line show consistent value. The +14.6% ROI confirms market inefficiency in pricing his defensive activity within Miami's aggressive scheme.
What's Terry Rozier's average Steals last 10 games?
Terry Rozier is averaging 1.0 steals over his last 10 games, exactly double the standard 0.5 line. This +0.5 differential represents significant outperformance and suggests the market is undervaluing his defensive production in Miami's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Terry Rozier steal overs against ball-dominant offenses and high-pace teams where Miami's switching defense creates more steal opportunities. Avoid during potential rest games or likely blowouts where defensive intensity typically decreases significantly.