Terry Rozier shows a moderate edge toward overs on one day rest, hitting 55.0% with an 11-9 record across 20 games. His 17.65 average beats the typical 17.1 line by 0.6 points, generating positive ROI for over bettors. This represents a lean over opportunity with measured confidence.
Expert Analysis
Rozier's one-day rest performance reveals a player who maintains offensive efficiency when given adequate recovery time. The 55.0% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the consistent 0.6-point edge above his typical line suggests Miami's offensive system benefits from having their veteran guard fresh. The positive 5.0% ROI on overs indicates this edge has translated to profitable betting opportunities, while the brutal -14.1% under ROI warns against fading Rozier in this spot. What makes this trend particularly interesting is its sustainability—across 20 games spanning over a year, Rozier has maintained this slight but consistent scoring bump. The lack of extreme streaks (longest run is just 3 games either way) suggests this isn't variance-driven but rather reflects how Miami utilizes Rozier when he's properly rested. His role as a secondary scorer means he doesn't face the defensive attention that might limit other players, allowing him to capitalize on fresh legs. However, the modest sample size and relatively thin edge mean this isn't a slam-dunk play. The trend appears most reliable when Rozier is healthy and Miami needs his scoring punch, but any injury concerns or reduced role could quickly erode this advantage.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Rozier's consistent 0.6-point edge above his line on one day rest, combined with the positive over ROI, creates a measurable advantage worth exploiting. The trend works best when Miami needs offensive production and Rozier is fully healthy. Primary risk is the modest 55% hit rate means variance can create losing streaks, so bankroll management remains crucial for this spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 15.5 | 4.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 18.5 | 22.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 16.5 | 34.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 16.5 | 27.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 18.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 16.5 | 27.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 16.5 | 14.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Terry Rozier's Points prop record on one day rest is 11-9-0 over/under, hitting overs 55.0% of the time across 20 games from December 2023 through January 2025, showing consistent moderate success for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Points 1 day rest?
Lean over on Terry Rozier's Points when he has one day rest. His 17.65 average beats typical lines by 0.6 points with positive ROI, but the modest 55% hit rate requires careful bankroll management and selective betting.
What's Terry Rozier's average Points 1 day rest?
Terry Rozier averages 17.65 points on one day rest compared to his typical 17.1 line, creating a consistent 0.6-point edge. This differential has proven sustainable across 20 games spanning over a year of data.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Terry Rozier's Points props is when he has one day rest and Miami needs scoring. Target games where he's healthy and playing his normal role, avoiding back-to-back situations or injury concerns.