Terry Rozier's home points props present a slight under edge, hitting just 46.7% overs across 15 games with a modest +0.4 average differential above the 17.57 line. The -10.9% over ROI versus +1.8% under ROI suggests consistent line inflation. Lean under with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
The 7-8 under record at home reveals a pattern of modest line overvaluation for Terry Rozier's scoring output at FTX Arena. While his 18.0 average suggests he's meeting expectations, the negative over ROI indicates books are pricing in a premium that doesn't match reality. Rozier's home environment hasn't provided the expected scoring boost that oddsmakers seem to anticipate. The longest under streak of five games demonstrates his ability to fall short of inflated numbers for extended periods, while the maximum over streak of just three suggests scoring bursts are shorter-lived. This 15-game sample from December 2023 through December 2024 captures a full season's worth of home performance, lending credibility to the trend. The key concern is regression - Rozier's talent level suggests he should eventually hit overs more frequently, particularly if Miami's offensive system evolves or his role expands. However, the consistent under performance indicates either usage limitations, defensive schemes targeting him at home, or simply realistic scoring expectations that books haven't fully adjusted to. The modest 0.4-point differential means we're not dealing with massive line errors, just consistent slight overvaluation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.3% under rate combined with positive under ROI suggests a sustainable edge against consistently inflated lines. Target games where Rozier faces strong perimeter defenses or when Miami's pace projects slower than average. Primary risk is natural regression toward his talent level, as extended under streaks rarely persist indefinitely for capable scorers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 18.5 | 22.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 16.5 | 34.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 16.5 | 14.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 15.5 | 13.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 16.5 | 3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 21.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 27.5 | 26.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 23.5 | 28.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Points prop record home games?
Terry Rozier has gone under his points prop in 8 of 15 home games (53.3%), posting a 7-8 over/under record. His under bets show a positive 1.8% ROI while overs have lost 10.9%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Points home games?
Lean under on Terry Rozier's home points props. The 53.3% under rate and positive under ROI indicate books consistently overprice his home scoring, creating a modest but trackable edge.
What's Terry Rozier's average Points home games?
Terry Rozier averages 18.0 points in home games compared to his typical 17.57 line, a +0.4 differential. Despite slightly exceeding the number, under bets have been more profitable long-term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Terry Rozier under props at home when facing elite perimeter defenses or in slower-paced games. His longest under streak reached 5 games, suggesting patience with the trend pays off.