Terry Rozier has been a consistent over performer on his points props, hitting the over in 58.1% of games (18-13 record) while averaging 18.13 points against a 17.27 line. The +0.8 differential and solid 10.8% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value, making this a lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Terry Rozier's points prop presents a compelling case for consistent over betting, driven by several key factors that suggest this isn't mere variance. The 18-13 over record across 31 games represents a meaningful sample size, while the +0.8 average differential indicates the market has been consistently undervaluing his scoring output. The 10.8% ROI on overs demonstrates real profitability, contrasting sharply with the -19.9% loss rate on unders. Rozier's role as Miami's primary perimeter scorer has stabilized since joining the Heat, providing the usage and shot attempts necessary to consistently reach his numbers. The current two-game over streak aligns with his historical pattern of clustering overs together, as evidenced by his longest over streak of four games. What makes this trend particularly attractive is the absence of extreme outliers skewing the data - Rozier's consistency suggests he's found his offensive rhythm within Miami's system. The biggest risk lies in potential load management or blowout scenarios that could limit his minutes, but Miami's competitive nature and Rozier's importance to their offensive scheme make such situations relatively rare. His shooting efficiency and ability to score in multiple ways provide multiple paths to covering his number.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Rozier's 58.1% over rate and +0.8 scoring differential indicate the market consistently undervalues his production. The 10.8% ROI on overs provides quantifiable edge over a solid 31-game sample. Ideal conditions include competitive games where Miami needs his scoring punch. Main risk is potential rest in blowouts, but his importance to Miami's offense makes this scenario uncommon enough to maintain betting value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 15.5 | 19.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 15.5 | 4.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 18.5 | 22.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 16.5 | 34.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 16.5 | 27.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 18.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Points prop record all games?
Terry Rozier's points prop record stands at 18-13 over/under across 31 games, hitting the over 58.1% of the time. This represents a solid winning percentage with meaningful profitability for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Points all games?
Bet the over on Terry Rozier's points props. His 58.1% over rate, +0.8 scoring differential, and 10.8% ROI on overs indicate consistent market undervaluation of his scoring ability.
What's Terry Rozier's average Points all games?
Terry Rozier averages 18.13 points per game against an average line of 17.27, creating a positive differential of +0.8 points. This consistent outperformance drives the profitability of over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Terry Rozier points overs in competitive games where Miami needs his offensive production. Avoid potential blowout scenarios, though his importance to Miami's system makes rest situations relatively uncommon.