Terry Rozier's assists prop shows clear under value in away games, hitting just 43.8% overs (7-9-0 record) with a -16.5% ROI on overs versus +7.4% on unders. Despite averaging 4.88 assists against a 4.81 line, the distribution heavily favors under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Terry Rozier's away assists trend reveals a classic case where average performance masks poor over consistency. While his 4.88 average sits marginally above the typical 4.81 line, Rozier fails to clear his number 56.2% of the time on the road. This pattern suggests his assist production suffers from the variance inherent in road environments—tighter defensive schemes, unfamiliar sightlines, and reduced rhythm all contribute to inconsistent playmaking. The Heat's road offensive efficiency likely plays a role, as Rozier's assist opportunities diminish when Miami struggles to generate quality looks away from home. His current streak of just one over followed by historically longer under stretches (up to three games) indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent road weakness. The 23.9-point ROI gap between unders and overs represents significant value, particularly given the 16-game sample size provides reasonable statistical confidence. Rozier's assist production appears more volatile on the road, creating an environment where books may be slow to adjust lines downward, maintaining artificial value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Terry Rozier's 43.8% over rate and -16.5% ROI on overs creates consistent under value in away games. The 23.9-point ROI differential favors unders despite his average sitting slightly above typical lines. Target this trend when Rozier faces strong defensive teams or in back-to-back road situations where his playmaking consistency typically suffers most.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Terry Rozier's Assists prop record away games?
Terry Rozier's assists prop record in away games is 7-9-0, hitting overs just 43.8% of the time across 16 games. This translates to a -16.5% ROI on overs while under bets have generated +7.4% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Terry Rozier Assists away games?
Bet under on Terry Rozier's assists in away games. The data strongly supports this with a 56.2% under hit rate and 23.9-point ROI advantage over overs, making it a consistent value play.
What's Terry Rozier's average Assists away games?
Terry Rozier averages 4.88 assists in away games against a typical line of 4.81, showing a marginal +0.07 differential. However, this slight edge masks poor over consistency at just 43.8% hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Terry Rozier assists unders when Miami plays road games against strong defensive teams or in back-to-back situations. These scenarios amplify the road assist struggles that create the most consistent under value.