Stephen Curry's three-pointers made prop at home presents a marginal edge with 16-15 over record (51.6%) and +0.2 average differential above typical lines. The slight positive variance suggests modest over value, though negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing. Lean over with low conviction.
Expert Analysis
Curry's home three-point performance reveals a fascinating market inefficiency despite appearing razor-thin. The 4.9 average versus 4.73 typical line creates a 0.17-point edge that compounds over volume. Chase Center's familiar shooting background, consistent crowd energy, and Curry's documented comfort in his home environment contribute to this slight uptick. The 51.6% over rate aligns with expected variance around true talent level, but the persistent positive differential suggests books may be slightly undervaluing his home court advantage. However, the negative ROI on both sides (-1.5% over, -7.6% under) indicates sharp market action that quickly eliminates obvious edges. Curry's recent streak patterns show volatility with a longest over streak of six games, demonstrating his ceiling remains explosive even when averages appear modest. The lack of dramatic splits suggests this edge stems from subtle environmental factors rather than obvious situational advantages. Warriors' pace at home, Curry's shot selection comfort, and defensive attention distribution all contribute to marginal improvements in three-point volume and efficiency that create betting value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The +0.2 differential above market lines provides slight mathematical edge, supported by Curry's documented home court comfort and Chase Center's favorable shooting environment. Target games where Warriors face uptempo opponents or trail early, forcing increased three-point attempts. Main risk is the efficient market pricing reflected in negative ROI both ways, suggesting sharp money quickly identifies and bets out obvious value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stephen Curry's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Curry has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 16 of 31 home games (51.6%) with a 16-15-0 record. His 4.9 average exceeds typical 4.73 lines by 0.2 attempts per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stephen Curry 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Curry's three-pointers made at home due to the +0.2 differential above market lines and his documented comfort at Chase Center, though maintain low conviction given efficient market pricing.
What's Stephen Curry's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Curry averages 4.9 three-pointers made in home games compared to typical lines around 4.73, creating a positive 0.17-point differential that suggests slight market undervaluation of his home court advantage.
How reliable is this trend?
Target home games against uptempo opponents or when Warriors trail early, forcing increased three-point volume. Avoid back-to-back situations or games with large early leads that reduce Curry's fourth-quarter attempts.