Stephen Curry's home points props present a modest over opportunity with a 54.8% hit rate (17-14-0 record) and positive 4.7% ROI. Despite averaging 1.4 points below his typical line, the consistent over performance suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home court advantage.
Expert Analysis
Curry's home scoring pattern reveals an intriguing market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. The 54.8% over rate coupled with positive ROI indicates the market consistently undervalues his home performance, likely because his 26.58 average appears to lag his 28.02 line. However, this surface-level analysis misses the crucial context. The positive over ROI despite the lower average suggests Curry exceeds expectations when it matters most, possibly due to Chase Center's shooter-friendly environment and crowd energy that elevates his rhythm. The Warriors' uptempo home style historically benefits Curry's shot volume, and his comfort level in familiar surroundings often translates to better shot selection and confidence in clutch moments. The fact that books haven't corrected this 4.7% edge over 31 games indicates either stubborn line-setting based on season averages or public money consistently hammering unders based on recent performances. The moderate sample size provides confidence without overexposure, and the absence of extreme streaks (longest over streak of 5) suggests sustainable rather than variance-driven results. This trend appears rooted in genuine home court factors rather than statistical noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.7% ROI over 31 games represents a legitimate edge that books haven't corrected, suggesting Curry's home environment provides consistent value. Target games where Golden State faces uptempo opponents or when coming off road trips, as these amplify his home court advantages. Main risk is regression if the Warriors' home pace slows or if books finally adjust their pricing model.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 26.5 | 33.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 26.5 | 13.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 25.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 26.5 | 14.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 26.5 | 27.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 27.5 | 15.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 29.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 26.5 | 20.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 28.5 | 15.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 30.5 | 32.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 28.5 | 30.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 27.5 | 37.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 27.5 | 46.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 26.5 | 33.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 28.5 | 25.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Stephen Curry props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stephen Curry's Points prop record home games?
Curry has gone over his points total in 17 of 31 home games (54.8%) with a 17-14-0 record. This translates to a profitable 4.7% ROI on over bets despite his 26.58 average trailing typical lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stephen Curry Points home games?
Lean over on Curry's home points props. The consistent 4.7% ROI over 31 games indicates books undervalue his home performance, creating a sustainable edge for disciplined over bettors in the right spots.
What's Stephen Curry's average Points home games?
Curry averages 26.58 points per game at home, typically running 1.4 points below his closing lines around 28.02. However, the positive over ROI suggests he exceeds expectations when the stakes are highest.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Curry points overs at home against uptempo teams or when Golden State returns from road trips. These situations maximize his comfort advantage and shot volume in the Warriors' pace-heavy system.