Stephen Curry's assists props have been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting 70% of the time across his last 10 games with a massive +1.7 differential above the typical 4.8 line. The Warriors' point guard is averaging 6.5 assists during this stretch, generating a robust +33.6% ROI on overs. This represents a strong lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Curry's elevated assist production stems from Golden State's evolved offensive approach where he's functioning more as a traditional point guard rather than primarily a scoring threat. The 6.5 average represents a significant uptick from his season norm, suggesting the Warriors are utilizing his court vision more deliberately in their offensive sets. The consistency is notable — seven overs in ten games isn't random variance, it's a systematic shift in usage patterns. The +1.7 differential above betting lines indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this trend, creating exploitable value. However, regression concerns are legitimate given Curry's career assist averages typically hover closer to the current line. The sample size, while meaningful, represents just a month of basketball and could reflect temporary tactical adjustments or favorable matchups. Golden State's pace and offensive efficiency during this stretch likely contributed to increased assist opportunities, but these factors can shift quickly in the NBA. The recent under snaps a five-game over streak, which could signal either natural variance or the beginning of a correction back toward historical norms.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% hit rate and substantial line differential create compelling value, particularly if Golden State continues emphasizing ball movement through Curry. Target overs when the Warriors face uptempo opponents or teams that struggle defensively in transition, as these conditions maximize assist opportunities. The primary risk is regression to Curry's career norms, especially if Golden State reverts to their traditional offense where he operates more off-ball.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Stephen Curry's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Stephen Curry has gone over his assists prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% hit rate), with 3 unders. He's averaging 6.5 assists against typical lines around 4.8, creating a +1.7 differential that has generated strong returns for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Stephen Curry Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Stephen Curry's assists props. The 70% over rate and +33.6% ROI indicate sustainable value, driven by Golden State's tactical adjustments that emphasize his playmaking. The +1.7 differential suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to his elevated assist production.
What's Stephen Curry's average Assists last 10 games?
Stephen Curry is averaging 6.5 assists over his last 10 games, significantly above the typical 4.8 line. This +1.7 differential represents a 35% edge above market expectations and has been remarkably consistent throughout this stretch of games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stephen Curry assists overs against uptempo teams or defensively weak opponents that create more transition opportunities. Games with higher projected totals also tend to increase assist chances, while avoiding back-to-back situations where usage patterns might shift toward rest management.