Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point prop shows minimal edge with a 40-42 over/under record (48.8% overs) across 82 games. His 1.46 average barely exceeds the typical 1.33 line, but negative ROI on both sides suggests this market is efficiently priced with limited betting value.
Expert Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point production represents one of the NBA's most efficiently priced props, with his 48.8% over rate sitting remarkably close to the expected 50% baseline. The Thunder star's 1.46 average against a 1.33 line creates only a 0.13 differential, indicating sportsbooks have calibrated this market with precision. This efficiency stems from Gilgeous-Alexander's consistent role as Oklahoma City's primary offensive engine, where his three-point attempts remain relatively stable regardless of game flow. His shooting volume typically ranges between 2-4 attempts per game, creating predictable outcomes that eliminate the volatility bettors need to find edges. The -6.9% ROI on overs and -2.2% on unders confirms this market's tightness, with neither side offering sustainable profit. While Gilgeous-Alexander has shown streaks of six overs and seven unders, these runs appear random rather than systematic, suggesting no underlying pattern to exploit. The absence of meaningful splits data further reinforces that external factors like opponent strength or venue have minimal impact on his three-point frequency. This prop exemplifies how star players with defined roles create markets where sportsbooks hold their theoretical edge, making it a prime candidate for recreational bettors to avoid.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. This market exemplifies efficient pricing where sportsbooks maintain their edge without offering exploitable angles. The near-perfect 48.8% over rate combined with negative ROI on both sides creates a textbook avoid situation. Gilgeous-Alexander's consistent role eliminates the variance needed for profitable betting opportunities in this prop.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point prop shows a 40-42 over/under record (48.8% overs) across 82 games from October 2023 through March 2025, with one current under streak and historical streaks reaching six overs and seven unders maximum.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3-Pointers Made all games?
Neither over nor under offers betting value on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point props. The -6.9% ROI on overs and -2.2% ROI on unders across 82 games demonstrates this is an efficiently priced market best avoided entirely.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 1.46 three-pointers made per game compared to the typical 1.33 line, creating just a 0.13 differential. This minimal edge disappears when factoring in the negative ROI on both betting sides.
How reliable is this trend?
There is no optimal time to bet Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point props. His consistent offensive role and the market's efficient pricing eliminate situational advantages, making this prop a consistent pass regardless of opponent or circumstances.