Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists prop has been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting at a 70% clip (7-3-0 record) over his last 10 games. With a +0.4 differential above the typical 6.1 line and a scorching five-game over streak, the Thunder star is clearly exceeding market expectations in the playmaking department.
Expert Analysis
The 70% over rate on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists reflects his expanded role as Oklahoma City's primary offensive catalyst. His 6.5 average against a 6.1 line reveals consistent market undervaluation, likely stemming from his reputation as a scorer-first guard. The Thunder's improved pace and ball movement under their current system has created more opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander to rack up assists, particularly when games stay competitive and require sustained offensive execution. The five-game over streak suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable shift in his playmaking frequency. Oklahoma City's young core has developed better chemistry and court awareness, making Gilgeous-Alexander's passes more likely to convert into assists. The +33.6% ROI demonstrates this trend has been profitable for sharp bettors who recognized the market's slow adjustment. However, the small 10-game sample demands caution, and any regression toward his career assist averages could quickly flip this trend. The key risk lies in blowout scenarios where Gilgeous-Alexander's fourth-quarter usage drops significantly, limiting his assist opportunities when the Thunder build substantial leads.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% hit rate and five-game streak indicate genuine market inefficiency rather than luck, but the limited sample size prevents full conviction. Target overs when Oklahoma City faces competitive opponents likely to keep games close through four quarters, maximizing Gilgeous-Alexander's playmaking opportunities. Avoid overs against clearly inferior opponents where garbage time could limit his assist chances.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over his assists prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate) with a 7-3-0 record. He's currently riding a five-game over streak, showing remarkable consistency in exceeding market expectations for his playmaking output.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists props. The 70% over rate and +0.4 differential above the typical 6.1 line indicate market undervaluation. However, the 10-game sample demands medium confidence rather than aggressive betting until more data confirms this trend's sustainability.
What's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's average Assists last 10 games?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.5 assists over his last 10 games, which sits 0.4 above the typical market line of 6.1. This differential has generated a profitable +33.6% ROI for over bettors who recognized the market's slow adjustment.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists overs in competitive games where Oklahoma City will need sustained offensive execution through four quarters. Avoid overs against clearly inferior opponents where potential blowouts could limit his fourth-quarter usage and assist opportunities significantly.