Shaedon Sharpe's assists props present a rare betting goldmine with just 21.1% overs hitting across 19 games. The Trail Blazers guard averages 2.53 assists against a 3.39 line, creating a massive 0.9 differential that has produced +50.7% ROI on unders. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Shaedon Sharpe's assist props reveal a fundamental market miscalibration that sophisticated bettors should exploit. The 4-15-0 record speaks to a player whose role doesn't align with oddsmakers' expectations. Sharpe operates primarily as a scoring-focused wing rather than a traditional playmaker, evident in his 2.53 average against inflated 3.39 lines. Portland's offensive system doesn't funnel assists through Sharpe consistently, as he's typically the beneficiary rather than the creator of offensive sets. The current seven-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the natural expression of his skill set and usage pattern. His longest over streak maxed at just two games, suggesting any positive variance quickly corrects itself. The -59.8% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't properly adjusted to Sharpe's actual role, creating sustainable value on the under side. With Portland often playing from behind and needing Sharpe's scoring more than his distribution, the structural factors supporting this trend remain intact. The 0.9 differential represents genuine edge rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 21.1% over rate and +50.7% under ROI create clear value, but the sample size of 19 games prevents high confidence. Sharpe's role as a scorer-first wing naturally limits his assist opportunities, making the inflated 3.39 line consistently beatable. The main risk is Portland's potential system changes or increased usage as a facilitator, but current evidence strongly supports continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shaedon Sharpe's Assists prop record all games?
Shaedon Sharpe's assists prop record in all games shows 4 overs, 15 unders, and 0 pushes across 19 games. This translates to just 21.1% of his games going over the assists line, making it one of the most reliable under trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shaedon Sharpe Assists all games?
You should bet under on Shaedon Sharpe's assists props in all games. The 79% under rate, +50.7% ROI, and 0.9 negative differential create clear value. His scoring-first role limits assist opportunities, making unders the smart play.
What's Shaedon Sharpe's average Assists all games?
Shaedon Sharpe averages 2.53 assists per game in all situations, compared to his typical line of 3.39. This 0.9 differential heavily favors the under, as he consistently falls short of market expectations by nearly a full assist per game.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Shaedon Sharpe assists unders is consistently, as his role-based limitations create ongoing value. Focus on games where Portland needs his scoring most, as this further reduces his playmaking responsibilities and strengthens the under case.