Scottie Barnes three-pointers made props at home show clear under value with a 46.9% over rate across 32 games. The -10.5% ROI on overs versus +1.4% on unders, combined with his 1.5 average barely clearing the typical 1.44 line, suggests consistent under betting opportunities at Scotiabank Arena.
Expert Analysis
Barnes's home three-point prop struggles stem from his evolving role and shot selection tendencies at Scotiabank Arena. The 15-17-0 over/under record reflects a player still finding his rhythm from deep, particularly in the comfort of his home environment where he may defer to teammates or focus more on facilitating. The modest +0.1 differential between his 1.5 home average and 1.44 typical line creates minimal margin for error, making overs vulnerable to even slight off-nights. Barnes's current streak of one under follows a pattern where extended under runs (longest: 8 games) outweigh over streaks (longest: 4 games), suggesting books may be slow to adjust lines downward. The negative ROI on overs (-10.5%) indicates consistent overvaluation, while the slight positive return on unders (+1.4%) confirms this edge exists but requires patience. Barnes's three-point shooting remains inconsistent enough that home court advantage doesn't translate to reliable prop clearing, especially when factoring in game flow and his tendency to impact games through rebounds and assists rather than perimeter shooting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of 53.1% under rate and negative over ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the small sample and modest average differential prevent high conviction. Target unders when Barnes faces defensive-minded opponents or in potential blowout scenarios where his minutes or shot attempts might decrease. Main risk is variance in a small sample and potential line adjustments if this trend continues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Scottie Barnes's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Barnes has gone 15-17-0 over/under on three-pointers made props in home games, hitting the over just 46.9% of the time. This 53.1% under rate across 32 games shows a clear pattern of underperforming expectations at Scotiabank Arena.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Scottie Barnes 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean under on Barnes's three-pointers made at home. The 53.1% under rate and -10.5% ROI on overs indicate consistent overvaluation by books. His 1.5 average barely clears typical lines, creating favorable under opportunities.
What's Scottie Barnes's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Barnes averages 1.5 three-pointers made in home games compared to the typical 1.44 line, creating just a +0.1 differential. This minimal cushion makes overs vulnerable to even slight shooting regression or reduced attempts.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Barnes three-point unders at home when facing strong perimeter defenses or in potential blowout scenarios. His longest under streak reached eight games, suggesting patience pays off when riding this trend during cold shooting stretches.