Scottie Barnes blocks props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over rate across his last 10 games with a devastating -42.7% ROI on overs. Despite averaging only 0.1 blocks above his typical 1.3 line, the under side has delivered consistent +33.6% returns. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Barnes's blocks production has been remarkably consistent yet underwhelming, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. The 1.4 average against a 1.3 line appears close, but that minimal 0.1 differential masks the frequency of failure. When a prop hits the over just 30% of the time, books are consistently overvaluing Barnes's rim protection impact. The current two-game under streak follows a pattern of inconsistency, with his longest over streak reaching just two games compared to a four-game under run. This suggests Barnes's defensive positioning and shot-blocking opportunities have been limited, likely due to Toronto's defensive scheme changes or his increased perimeter responsibilities. The Raptors' pace and opponent tendencies during this stretch have clearly not favored Barnes accumulating blocks at the rate books expect. With blocks being among the most volatile defensive stats, the sustained underperformance indicates a structural shift rather than random variance. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify this edge, especially given the stark ROI differential between sides.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under hit rate combined with +33.6% ROI creates a clear mathematical edge despite the small average differential. Barnes's blocks production has been systematically overvalued by oddsmakers during this stretch. The ideal conditions are when his line sits at 1.5, where even modest underperformance hits the under. Main risk is a single defensive explosion game that could skew recent averages, but the consistency of the trend outweighs this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Scottie Barnes's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Barnes has gone 3-7-0 on blocks overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% with a brutal -42.7% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoyed +33.6% returns on the consistent failures.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Scottie Barnes Blocks last 10 games?
Bet under on Barnes blocks props. The 70% under hit rate and +33.6% ROI over 10 games shows books are systematically overvaluing his shot-blocking production during this stretch.
What's Scottie Barnes's average Blocks last 10 games?
Barnes averages 1.4 blocks over his last 10 games compared to his typical 1.3 line, a minimal +0.1 differential that masks the 70% frequency of under outcomes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Barnes blocks unders when his line is set at 1.5, as even modest underperformance hits. Avoid after dominant defensive games when recency bias might temporarily correct the line.