Scoot Henderson's steals prop shows strong over value with a 58.3% hit rate (7-5-0) and +11.4% ROI across 12 games. His 1.25 average significantly outpaces the typical 1.0 line, creating a meaningful +0.2 edge. This represents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Henderson's steals production reflects the aggressive defensive mentality Portland has cultivated in their young guard. His 1.25 average against a 1.0 line creates substantial value, particularly given his 58.3% over rate translates to profitable betting at standard -110 odds. The +11.4% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't just volume but legitimate edge. Henderson's steal rate benefits from his high motor and Portland's uptempo style, which creates more possessions and transition opportunities where steals naturally occur. His youth and energy allow him to maintain defensive pressure throughout games, unlike veterans who might conserve energy. The consistency is notable—while he's currently on a brief 1-game under streak, his longest over streak reached 5 games, showing sustained periods of defensive activity. The -20.4% ROI on unders reinforces that betting against Henderson's steal production has been costly. His defensive instincts and Portland's system create natural steal opportunities, whether through gambling in passing lanes or pressuring ball handlers. The sample size of 12 games provides reasonable confidence, though we'd prefer seeing this trend across 20+ games for maximum reliability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Henderson's 1.25 average creates clear value against the standard 1.0 line, supported by a profitable 58.3% over rate. The +11.4% ROI on overs shows this edge translates to actual profits. Target games where Portland faces pace-up spots or turnover-prone opponents to maximize Henderson's steal opportunities. Main risk is small sample size and potential line adjustments if books recognize this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Scoot Henderson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Scoot Henderson's Steals prop record all games?
Henderson's steals prop record shows 7 overs, 5 unders, and 0 pushes across 12 games for a 58.3% over rate. This translates to a profitable +11.4% ROI when betting overs at standard odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Scoot Henderson Steals all games?
Bet over on Henderson's steals props. His 1.25 average significantly exceeds typical 1.0 lines, creating clear value. The 58.3% over rate and positive ROI support this as a profitable long-term strategy.
What's Scoot Henderson's average Steals all games?
Henderson averages 1.25 steals per game across this 12-game sample. This sits 0.25 steals above the standard 1.0 line, representing a meaningful 25% edge over the typical betting threshold.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henderson steals overs when Portland faces high-pace opponents or turnover-prone teams. His aggressive defensive style and Portland's system create the most steal opportunities in uptempo, transition-heavy games.