Rui Hachimura's three-pointer prop on one day rest shows modest under value with a 47.6% over rate (10-11-0 record) and negative -9.1% ROI on overs. While averaging 1.57 makes versus a 1.36 line, the consistent under performance suggests lean under opportunities.
Expert Analysis
Hachimura's three-point production on one day rest reveals a compelling disconnect between surface numbers and actual betting value. Despite averaging 1.57 makes against a 1.36 line—a seemingly favorable +0.2 differential—the 47.6% over rate tells a different story. The -9.1% ROI on overs indicates books have effectively priced in his elevated average, creating consistent under value. This pattern suggests Hachimura's three-point attempts may be more volatile than his average indicates, with games clustering around 0-1 makes more frequently than the 2+ needed to clear typical lines. The Lakers' offensive system and Hachimura's role as a complementary shooter likely contribute to this inconsistency. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, though his historical four-game over streak shows he can get hot. The key factor appears to be game script and shot selection—when Los Angeles controls games or faces elite defenses, Hachimura's three-point volume often disappoints relative to expectations. Without additional context like opponent pace or defensive ratings, the raw numbers favor under betting, particularly given the negative ROI pattern that suggests systematic overvaluation by the market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -9.1% ROI on overs despite a favorable average differential indicates systematic market overvaluation of Hachimura's three-point consistency on one day rest. Target this spot when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, especially against slower-paced opponents where his attempts may decrease. Primary risk is a hot shooting night breaking his recent under trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rui Hachimura's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Hachimura goes 10-11-0 over/under on three-pointers made with one day rest, hitting the over just 47.6% of the time across 21 games. This under-heavy record spans from October 2023 through April 2025.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rui Hachimura 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lean under on Hachimura's three-pointers made with one day rest. The -9.1% ROI on overs despite favorable averages indicates consistent market overvaluation, creating systematic under value opportunities.
What's Rui Hachimura's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Hachimura averages 1.57 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to his typical 1.36 line, creating a +0.2 differential. However, this average masks high variance in his actual attempts and makes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hachimura three-pointer unders when lines reach 1.5+ with one day rest, especially against slower-paced teams. His complementary role creates game script dependency that often disappoints elevated expectations.