Rudy Gobert's steals prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.1% overs across 34 games with a -15.8% ROI on overs versus +6.7% on unders. Despite averaging 0.62 steals against a 0.5 line, the consistent underperformance suggests sustainable value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling disconnect between Gobert's modest 0.12 average advantage over the 0.5 line and his poor over rate on one day rest. This pattern reflects the physical reality of Gobert's defensive role - as a rim protector who rarely ventures into passing lanes, his steal opportunities depend heavily on opponent mistakes and deflections rather than aggressive anticipation. The one-day rest factor appears to subtly impact his lateral mobility and reaction time, critical elements for generating steals. While 0.62 steals per game seems reasonable for a player of his defensive caliber, the 15-19 over-under record demonstrates that oddsmakers consistently overestimate his steal production in this specific rest scenario. The current three-game over streak represents typical variance rather than a fundamental shift, especially given his longer four-game under streak earlier in the sample. The negative ROI on overs (-15.8%) versus positive returns on unders (+6.7%) creates a mathematically sound foundation for continued under betting, particularly when considering that Gobert's defensive value comes primarily from rim protection rather than perimeter disruption.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 44.1% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates sustainable value on Gobert steals unders with one day rest. His rim-protection focus limits steal upside, and the rest factor appears to subtly reduce his lateral quickness needed for deflections. Primary risk is the recent three-game over streak potentially indicating a short-term shift in defensive aggression or opponent tendencies.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rudy Gobert's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Gobert's steals prop on one day rest shows a 15-19-0 over-under record (44.1% overs) across 34 games from November 2023 to April 2024, demonstrating consistent underperformance against the betting line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rudy Gobert Steals 1 day rest?
Bet under on Gobert's steals with one day rest. The 56% under rate and positive 6.7% ROI on unders versus -15.8% on overs creates clear mathematical value for under betting.
What's Rudy Gobert's average Steals 1 day rest?
Gobert averages 0.62 steals on one day rest against a typical 0.5 line, creating a modest +0.12 differential. However, this small edge hasn't translated to consistent over success at just 44.1%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gobert steals unders specifically on one day rest scenarios where his lateral mobility may be compromised. Avoid betting when he faces pace-heavy opponents that create more deflection opportunities.