P.J. Washington's three-point prop shows a clear over bias with a 56.5% hit rate across 23 games, averaging 2.09 makes against a 1.59 line for a healthy +0.5 differential. The +7.9% ROI on overs versus -17.0% on unders creates a compelling edge. Lean Over on Washington's three-point props.
Expert Analysis
Washington's three-point success stems from Dallas's offensive system that maximizes his corner opportunities and spot-up situations. The +0.5 differential between his 2.09 average and 1.59 line suggests books are consistently undervaluing his volume in the Mavericks' pace-heavy offense. His 13-10 over record indicates sustainable performance rather than variance-driven results, particularly given his role as a floor-spacing four who benefits from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving's drive-and-kick tendencies. The eight-game over streak demonstrates his ceiling potential when rhythm develops, while the four-game under streak shows books haven't fully adjusted lines upward. Washington's shooting mechanics and shot selection remain consistent, with most attempts coming from quality looks rather than forced shots. The negative ROI on unders (-17.0%) reinforces that fading his three-point production has been costly. However, regression risk exists if Dallas shifts toward more post-heavy possessions or if Washington's shooting percentage normalizes from any hot stretches. The lack of split data limits situational awareness, but the overall trend suggests books are pricing his props conservatively relative to his actual output in this offensive system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Washington's 2.09 average significantly exceeds typical lines around 1.59, creating consistent value on overs. The +7.9% ROI demonstrates profitable opportunities, particularly when Dallas plays uptempo games that generate more three-point attempts. Main risk is potential line adjustment as books recognize the pattern, but current pricing still favors over bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is P.J. Washington's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Washington posts a 13-10 over record on three-pointers made props across 23 games, hitting the over 56.5% of the time. This represents a solid edge over the typical 52.4% break-even rate needed for standard -110 odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on P.J. Washington 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet over on Washington's three-pointers made props. His 2.09 average significantly exceeds typical 1.59 lines, generating +7.9% ROI on overs. The consistent volume in Dallas's system creates reliable value betting opportunities.
What's P.J. Washington's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Washington averages 2.09 three-pointers made per game compared to his typical 1.59 prop line. This +0.5 differential represents substantial value, as he's exceeding expectations by nearly half a made three-pointer per contest.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Washington's three-point props during high-pace games where Dallas generates more possessions and spot-up opportunities. His eight-game over streak suggests momentum periods offer the strongest betting value when his rhythm peaks.