P.J. Washington's steals prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 70.0% hit rate (14-6-0 record) and exceptional +33.6% ROI. His 1.3 steals per game average significantly exceeds the typical 0.7 line, creating consistent value for sharp bettors targeting the over.
Expert Analysis
Washington's steals dominance stems from Dallas's defensive scheme that maximizes his versatility as a switchable forward. His 6'7" frame and improved anticipation allow him to disrupt passing lanes while maintaining rebounding position, a skill set that translates consistently across matchups. The +0.6 differential between his average and the betting line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his elevated defensive impact since joining Dallas. This edge persists because Washington's steals production isn't dependent on game flow or pace—he generates deflections through positioning and basketball IQ rather than gambling for risky picks. The 70% over rate across 20 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +33.6% ROI demonstrates this isn't just a hot streak but sustainable value. His longest over streak of five games shows the consistency that makes this prop attractive, while even his longest under streak maxed at just three games. The lack of significant splits data actually works in our favor, suggesting his production remains steady regardless of opponent or situation. Washington's defensive role in Dallas appears locked in, making this trend more likely to continue than regress.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Washington's 70% over rate and massive +0.6 average differential create undeniable value that oddsmakers haven't corrected. His defensive role in Dallas generates consistent steal opportunities through scheme rather than luck, making this sustainable long-term. The primary risk is potential line adjustment, but until books move off 0.5-0.7, this represents premium betting value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is P.J. Washington's Steals prop record all games?
Washington holds a dominant 14-6-0 over/under record on steals props across all games, hitting the over at a 70% clip. This translates to exceptional +33.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors face brutal -42.7% losses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on P.J. Washington Steals all games?
Bet the OVER with high confidence. Washington's 1.3 steals average crushes the typical 0.7 line by +0.6, creating massive value. His 70% over rate and +33.6% ROI make this one of the strongest defensive props available.
What's P.J. Washington's average Steals all games?
Washington averages 1.3 steals per game, significantly outpacing the standard 0.7 betting line. This +0.6 differential represents substantial value, as he's exceeding expectations by nearly double the typical prop threshold consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Washington steals overs consistently regardless of matchup, as his 70% success rate shows no significant situational variance. Focus on games where the line remains at 0.5-0.7, as any upward adjustment would reduce the exceptional value currently available.