Paul George's three-pointers made prop shows elite over value with a 70.6% hit rate across 17 games, averaging 3.41 makes against a 3.09 line for a +0.32 edge. The 34.8% ROI on overs reflects consistent outperformance that warrants strong consideration on the over.
Expert Analysis
Paul George's three-point prop dominance stems from Philadelphia's uptempo offensive system that maximizes his elite shooting talent. The 70.6% over rate isn't fluky variance—it reflects George's role as a primary perimeter weapon in a pace-heavy scheme that generates quality looks. His 3.41 average against a 3.09 line reveals consistent market undervaluation, likely due to books anchoring to his injury-shortened seasons rather than his current usage. The +0.32 differential is substantial for three-point props, where margins are typically razor-thin. George's shot profile benefits from Philadelphia's ball movement and spacing, creating cleaner catch-and-shoot opportunities than his previous stops. The 34.8% ROI on overs demonstrates genuine edge rather than short-term luck. However, regression risk exists—no player sustains 70% over rates indefinitely. The sample size of 17 games provides solid foundation but isn't bulletproof. George's health remains the primary concern, as any physical limitations could impact his shooting volume and accuracy. The current streak of one under suggests potential cooling, but the underlying factors—role, system, talent—remain intact. Books may eventually adjust lines upward, but until then, this represents one of the season's most profitable prop trends.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Paul George's 70.6% over rate and +0.32 differential above the line create compelling value, particularly given Philadelphia's pace and his primary shooter role. The 34.8% ROI demonstrates sustainable edge rather than variance. Main risk is natural regression from unsustainable over rates, but the underlying factors supporting his three-point volume remain strong until books properly adjust.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Paul George's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Paul George has hit the over on his three-pointers made prop in 12 of 17 games (70.6%), with 5 unders and no pushes. This 12-5-0 record has generated a strong 34.8% ROI for over bettors while under backers lost 43.9%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Paul George 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the over on Paul George's three-pointers made props. His 70.6% over rate and +0.32 average differential above the line create clear value, supported by Philadelphia's pace and his primary shooter role until books adjust lines higher.
What's Paul George's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Paul George averages 3.41 three-pointers made per game, which is 0.32 above his typical 3.09 line. This differential represents significant value in three-point props where edges are typically measured in tenths, not full makes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paul George three-point overs in uptempo matchups where Philadelphia's pace maximizes possessions. Avoid back-to-back situations or games where he's managing minor injuries that could limit his shooting volume or aggressiveness from deep.